From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Dec 25 16:16:10 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBP8G9Fd015355 for ; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 16:16:10 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBP50200000588; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4868931 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:56 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBP8FuVh008719 for ; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:56 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBP8FnxY020687 for ; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:56 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B3FD63FE0013; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:48 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101225081549.B3FD63FE0013@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2010 02:15:48 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 671 FXPQ60 PGUM 250815 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 615 PM CHST SAT DEC 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHEAR LINE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS KEEP BASIC EAST TRADE-WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SMALL BUBBLE OF DRY WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CHANGE FORECAST TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A RESULT. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THIS AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW SO WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERS ISOLATED. A SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...BUT WILL MAKE IT ONLY DOWN TO 18N BY WEDNESDAY. CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE A LITTLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY TRANSLATE INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BUT WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE DATE LINE...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO FLOW THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TRADES IS JUST WEST OF POHNPEI IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOME PASSING SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE DATE LINE BETWEEN 5N AND 13N. EXPECT THIS DISTURBANCE TO BRING WET WEATHER FOR MAJURO BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KOSRAE ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVER POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONVERGENT WINDS TRAILING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PROLONG SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. ELSEWHERE...NE SWELL IS GENERATING SURF JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI. THIS SURF WILL TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT THEN EASTERLY TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL KEEP BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE MARSHALLS AND REACH CHUUK BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF POHNPEI WILL CAUSE SHALLOW SHOWERS SUNDAY FOR CHUUK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM THE EAST ABOUT MIDWEEK...AGAIN INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY TRIGGERED BY CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS NEAR KOROR AND YAP THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AS BOTH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INCREASES. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.