From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 26 03:34:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBPJYRs5024502 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 03:34:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBP502GW000588; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:07 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4873508 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:07 -0600 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBPJY7X1012534 for ; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:07 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBPJY0AC019123 for ; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:07 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B98A93FE0013; Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:00 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101225193400.B98A93FE0013@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:34:00 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 494 FXPQ60 PGUM 251933 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 533 AM CHST SUN DEC 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SHALLOW TRADE-WIND CLOUDINESS IS SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST ZONES TO THE DATE LINE. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IN INDRAFT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. FORECAST GRIDS REQUIRED ONLY A FEW MINOR COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHEAR LINE INTO THE CNMI EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR ANY TRENDS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .MARINE... TRADE-WIND SWELL HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY AT AROUND 5 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SURF HEIGHT DECLINES ON WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS SECONDARY NORTH- NORTHWEST SWELL BACK TO NORTH AND DECREASE IN HEIGHT. OVERALL... MODERATE RIP RISK SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU THIS EVENING AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY FROM KWAJALEIN...SHOWER COVERAGE NEAR MAJURO APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS LINING UP EAST OF MAJURO TOWARD THE DATE LINE. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GIVE SCATTERED COVERAGE TO MAJURO FOR TODAY WHICH COULD EXTEND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO PROGRESS WESTWARD TO KOSRAE LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH POHNPEI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NARROWNESS OF THIS FEATURE ARGUES FOR A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST APPROACH FOR THESE TWO LOCATIONS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS DIRECTLY TOWARD THEM. ANOTHER SIMILAR DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY QUEUED UP JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ON KOSRAE UNTIL MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER TRADES IS GOING TO TEAM UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A PERIOD OF FAIRER WEATHER ON MONDAY...A SERIES OF TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES MIGRATING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BRING BACK SHOWERY CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF YAP THIS MORNING...AND NEAR KOROR UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTERWARD...DRIER TRADES FILTERING DOWN FROM THE MARIANAS SHOULD PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER CHUUK WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO YAP AND KOROR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.