From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Dec 26 16:35:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBQ8ZR7t018538 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 16:35:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBP502Yv000588; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:58 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4878646 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:58 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQ8YvP2015717 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:57 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQ8YpKs016276 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:57 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0ABF33FE0009; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:50 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101226083451.0ABF33FE0009@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:50 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 064 FXPQ60 PGUM 260834 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 634 PM CHST SUN DEC 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD SHEAR LINE ARE APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST. A WEAK TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OUT EAST OF 150E...BETWEEN 12N AND 14N FROM 152E TO ABOUT 157E. && .DISCUSSION... GFS AND UKMET ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF THE WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE EAST OF 150E MOVING WEST THROUGH THE MARIANAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS ALSO SHOWS 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IN VIEW OF THIS...WILL INTRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW. BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES TO THE LETTER...MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN FALLING SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT A NEW NW TO NORTH SWELL IS DUE AROUND MIDWEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE MARSHALLS. APPEARS THAT DEEPEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO TONIGHT BUT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF KWAJALEIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR POHNPEI MONDAY BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WW3 MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ONGOING BORDERLINE HIGH SURF EVENT ON EASTERN EXPOSURES AT KOSRAE. TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR KOSRAE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGENCE EAST OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF PALAU FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS INDICATE BEST CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR KOROR AND YAP BUT STILL KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N. FOR CHUUK...DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA AFTER A ROUND OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE MARSHALLS PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND ARRIVES AT CHUUK SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.