Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:34:50 -0600

064 
FXPQ60 PGUM 260834
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
634 PM CHST SUN DEC 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD SHEAR LINE ARE
APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST. A WEAK TRADE WIND
DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OUT EAST OF 150E...BETWEEN 12N
AND 14N FROM 152E TO ABOUT 157E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
DAYS...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF THE WEAK
TRADE DISTURBANCE EAST OF 150E MOVING WEST THROUGH THE MARIANAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GFS ALSO SHOWS 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. IN VIEW OF THIS...WILL
INTRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT STAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW. BUT IF THE GFS
VERIFIES TO THE LETTER...MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL WILL DIMINISH TO 2 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN FALLING SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT A NEW NW TO NORTH SWELL IS DUE AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE MARSHALLS. APPEARS THAT DEEPEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO TONIGHT BUT IS PROGGED
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF
KWAJALEIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY FOR POHNPEI MONDAY BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WW3 MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ONGOING BORDERLINE 
HIGH SURF EVENT ON EASTERN EXPOSURES AT KOSRAE. TRADE-WIND SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE HIGH SURF 
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENCE EAST OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR AND 
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION 
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS INDICATE BEST 
CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY 
FOR KOROR AND YAP BUT STILL KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N. 
FOR CHUUK...DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA AFTER A ROUND 
OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. SHOWERS COULD RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE MARSHALLS PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND 
ARRIVES AT CHUUK SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS

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