From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 27 04:17:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBQKHTrt032589 for ; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 04:17:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQCI5Pq000588; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:14 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4885414 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:13 -0600 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQKHDqq000656 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:13 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQKH7Jv006841 for ; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:13 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 40487144B0001; Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:06 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101226201707.40487144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:06 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 787 FXPQ60 PGUM 262016 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 616 AM CHST MON DEC 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW SMALL SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING OVER THE MARIANAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ENTERS THE LOCAL AREA. && .DISCUSSION... TWEAKED WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM AS THEY ARE A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASIC EASTERLY TRADE-WINDS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON NEW YEARS EVE. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW A SHEARLINE DROPING SOUTHWARD AND ENTERING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS NEW YEARS NIGHT. BUY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT THE SHEAR LINE COULD PUSH DOWN TO NEAR GUAM. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST SHEAR LINE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH THIS SEASON. WINDS WILL PICK UP THE BEGINING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHEAR LINE. AN AREA OF CLOUDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE WEST AND BRING MOSTLYCLOUDY SKIES TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELLL AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND THEN BRIEFLY RISE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A RE-ENFORCING SWELL ENTERS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL GENERATE LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE WW3 MODEL IS PREDICTING A NORTHWEST SWELL AT 10 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS TO ENTER THE MARIANAS BY NEXT SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE WATCHED AS THIS KIND OF SWELL WOULD EQUAL HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEF LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT BUT WIDER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED EAST OF KOSRAE AND EXTENDS ACROSS MAJURO. WHILE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE SITUATION AT MAJURO THEY APPEAR TO KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWERS TOO FAR NORTH OF KOSRAE. ACCORDINGLY HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO FOR JUST TODAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR KOSRAE WHILE KEEPING SHOWERS ISOLATED. A TROUGH MOVING BY POHNPEI TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES WEST. AFTER A DRIER MIDWEEK...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOLLOWING LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WW3 MODEL DATA...HAVE ENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT KOSRAE. AS TRADE WINDS FURTHER WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEK...SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR TO BE REDEVELOPING...BUT SHRINKING IN OVERALL COVERAGE AREA. GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE WET FOR TODAYS FORECAST SO HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU. GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TWO LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY...BUT BASED ON A RATHER HECTIC SURFACE WIND PATTERN...WILL WAIT FOR MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OR OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE TO JUMP ON THE BAND WAGON BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS BY POHNPEI TODAY WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AT CHUUK BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTH. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.