Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2010 14:17:06 -0600

787 
FXPQ60 PGUM 262016
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
616 AM CHST MON DEC 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SMALL SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING
OVER THE MARIANAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ENTERS THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM AS THEY ARE A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASIC EASTERLY TRADE-WINDS
WILL PREVIAL THROUGH MUCH OF WEEK BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON NEW
YEARS EVE. WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ON SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A SHEARLINE DROPING SOUTHWARD AND ENTERING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
NEW YEARS NIGHT. BUY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT THE SHEAR LINE COULD PUSH
DOWN TO NEAR GUAM. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST SHEAR LINE TO MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH THIS SEASON. WINDS WILL PICK UP THE BEGINING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHEAR LINE.

AN AREA OF CLOUDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE
WEST AND BRING MOSTLYCLOUDY SKIES TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELLL AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT AND THEN BRIEFLY RISE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A RE-ENFORCING
SWELL ENTERS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL GENERATE LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC NEXT WEEKEND. THE WW3 MODEL IS PREDICTING A NORTHWEST
SWELL AT 10 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS TO ENTER THE MARIANAS
BY NEXT SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE SITUATION WILL BE WATCHED AS THIS KIND OF SWELL WOULD EQUAL
HAZARDOUS SURF ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEF LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT BUT WIDER BAND
OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED EAST OF KOSRAE AND EXTENDS ACROSS
MAJURO. WHILE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE SITUATION AT MAJURO
THEY APPEAR TO KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWERS TOO FAR NORTH OF KOSRAE.
ACCORDINGLY HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO FOR JUST
TODAY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR KOSRAE WHILE KEEPING SHOWERS
ISOLATED. A TROUGH MOVING BY POHNPEI TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES WEST. AFTER A DRIER MIDWEEK...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOLLOWING LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WW3 MODEL DATA...HAVE ENDED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT KOSRAE. AS TRADE WINDS FURTHER WEAKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK...SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR TO BE REDEVELOPING...BUT
SHRINKING IN OVERALL COVERAGE AREA. GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE WET
FOR TODAYS FORECAST SO HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH YAP AND
PALAU. GFS BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TWO LOCATIONS BY
THURSDAY...BUT BASED ON A RATHER HECTIC SURFACE WIND
PATTERN...WILL WAIT FOR MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OR OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE TO JUMP ON THE BAND WAGON BEFORE ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS BY
POHNPEI TODAY WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TONIGHT AT CHUUK BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL STAY SOUTH.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT

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