From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Dec 27 15:33:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBR7XNn4010897 for ; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 15:33:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBQCI5bR000588; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:33:05 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4888981 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:33:04 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBR7X4YZ010432 for ; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:33:04 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBR7Wwb8029318 for ; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:33:04 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2480D3FE0005; Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:32:58 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101227073258.2480D3FE0005@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:32:58 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 658 FXPQ60 PGUM 270732 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 532 PM CHST MON DEC 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NOW...BUT ANIMATED RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RATHER BLAND. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD STALLING THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF SAIPAN...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY DETAIL TO THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF HINT AT MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST THAT COULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... IPAN BUOY COMES IN WITH A SIGNIFICANT SWELL HEIGHT BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED A FOOT FROM THE INITIAL TRADE-WIND SWELL HEIGHTS. WAVE WATCH MODEL IS STILL BRINGING IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS AS HIGH AS 11 FEET FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COMBINED SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET AND A ROBUST HIGH SURF EVENT THIS WEEKEND FOR WEST AND NORTH FACING EXPOSURES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION CURVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ENDING SOUTH OF CHUUK. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE SHOWERS TRAINING ACROSS MAJURO...BUT LIFTING JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE. BECAUSE OF THIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR MAJURO AND FOR NORTHERN WATERS OF KOSRAE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF MAJURO SHOULD PUSH THE BELT OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF MAJURO TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE MARSHALLS BY MIDWEEK BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI THIS MORNING CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD CHUUK. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY TOMORROW...WITH CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST. FARTHER WEST...A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WEATHER NEAR KOROR. SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...WITH COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL CARRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT KOROR...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW TAPERING TO ISOLATED. EARLIER MODEL RUNS VARIED A BIT IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT LATEST RUN SMOOTHS THINGS OUT A BIT WITH A MORE CONSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.