Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2010 19:16:38 -0600

794 
FXPQ60 PGUM 280116 AAA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1116 AM CHST TUE DEC 28 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AM FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE FROM
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES. RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ALONG THE CHAIN
OF THE MARIANAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS INITIAL 200
MB FIELDS INDICATE A TUTT SEVERING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF
THE FORECAST ZONES NEAR 149E. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING
THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR THE INCREASED SHOWER FORMATION. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A FEW CBS MAY HAVE FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...WHERE
GFS INITIAL 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE GREATEST. WILL FOREGO
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BASED ON THE LOWER 200 MB
DIVERGENCE VALUES OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT

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