Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:27 -0600

362 
FXPQ60 PGUM 280744
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
544 PM CHST TUE DEC 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT AND SURFACE TROUGHING JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS PROVIDED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY.
THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED...ALLOWING SHOWER COVERAGE
TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED AT FORECAST TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. WEATHER STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY
DRY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...WHEN A SHEAR LINE APPROACHES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS AMBIGUOUS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN...SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY DETAIL
TO THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND HIGH SURF. SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION SECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHAVED A FOOT FROM INITIAL TRADE SWELL TO INITIALIZE WITH IPAN
BUOY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL TO THE FORECAST ZONES ON SUNDAY. HIGH SURF EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY...AND SURF COULD EVEN RISE TO WARNING HEIGHTS
DURING THIS EVENT IF WAVE GUIDANCE VERIFIES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY
DECLINE IN DEEP CONVECTION IN AREAS EAST OF KOSRAE. SHOWERS MOVED
INTO POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE APPROACHING KOSRAE AS THE LINE
DROPS SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...KOSRAE WAS SPLIT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TOMORROW AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE REGION BUT MODEL DATA SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 5N AND 9N...BUT WITH A DECREASE
IN MOISTURE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MAINTAINED CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CHUUK TODAY
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
APPROACH FROM THE EAST AS A TRADE-WIND TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA.
DEEP CONVECTION FLARED AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR TODAY. SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR BOTH LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK MOVES WEST. WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL
DEVELOPS A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR. SURF
CALCULATION ON CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
LIKELY BEFORE THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENTS AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON

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