From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Dec 28 15:44:55 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBS7irH6013753 for ; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 15:44:54 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBRKRJF4000588; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:35 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4895991 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:34 -0600 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBS7iYIT027446 for ; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:34 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBS7iRCw011367 for ; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:34 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DA9223FE0004; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:27 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101228074427.DA9223FE0004@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2010 01:44:27 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 362 FXPQ60 PGUM 280744 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 544 PM CHST TUE DEC 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TUTT AND SURFACE TROUGHING JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS PROVIDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED...ALLOWING SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED AT FORECAST TIME. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. WEATHER STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...WHEN A SHEAR LINE APPROACHES. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS AMBIGUOUS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN...SO HAVE NOT ADDED ANY DETAIL TO THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND HIGH SURF. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION SECTION. && .MARINE... SHAVED A FOOT FROM INITIAL TRADE SWELL TO INITIALIZE WITH IPAN BUOY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO THE FORECAST ZONES ON SUNDAY. HIGH SURF EVENT APPEARS LIKELY...AND SURF COULD EVEN RISE TO WARNING HEIGHTS DURING THIS EVENT IF WAVE GUIDANCE VERIFIES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY DECLINE IN DEEP CONVECTION IN AREAS EAST OF KOSRAE. SHOWERS MOVED INTO POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE APPROACHING KOSRAE AS THE LINE DROPS SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...KOSRAE WAS SPLIT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TOMORROW AT POHNPEI AND MAJURO. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE REGION BUT MODEL DATA SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 5N AND 9N...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MAINTAINED CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CHUUK TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE EAST AS A TRADE-WIND TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA. DEEP CONVECTION FLARED AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR TODAY. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR BOTH LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK MOVES WEST. WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL DEVELOPS A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR. SURF CALCULATION ON CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEFORE THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENTS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.