From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 29 04:53:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBSKraX9002971 for ; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 04:53:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBRKRJYD000588; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:53:06 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4899834 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:53:06 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBSKr6hN013104 for ; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:53:06 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBSKqxY1002924 for ; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:53:05 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8C0DC3FE0031; Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:52:59 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101228205259.8C0DC3FE0031@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:52:59 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 891 FXPQ60 PGUM 282052 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 652 AM CHST WED DEC 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... DID TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGE ELSEWHERE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE CHANGING SOME OF WHAT THEY WERE PREDICTING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. EARLIER MODELS PUSHED A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS FAR SOUTH AS GUAM ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS NOW PUSHES IT DOWN TO ONLY BETWEEN ANATAHAN AND SAIPAN. NGPS ONLY PUSHES THE SHEAR LINE DOWN TO PAGAN. SINCE THIS IS SO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL OPINION FIGURE IT WAS BEST TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS STILL PREDICTED TO PUSH SWELLS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE N-NW SWELL IS STILL PREDICTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND... HOWEVER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FLUX. PREDICTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. WHILE THIS DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE LEADING TO A MORE ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF EVENTS IT MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHT HICCUP IN THE MODELS AND SO WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN AND A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS IS FOUND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DRAPED ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION IS FOUND FARTHER WEST FROM KOSRAE TO BEYOND POHNPEI. WITH EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE NEAR POHNPEI...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGERING MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS. FOR KOSRAE...SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET FOR EASTERN REEFS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT NEAR A WESTWARD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM WITH TRAILING SHOWERS PASSING OVER CHUUK. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AT CHUUK. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AT YAP AND PALAU TODAY WITH A BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR YAP TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH REACHING THE TWO LOCATIONS THURSDAY...REINFORCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO POINT TO A DEVELOPING LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEFORE THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENTS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.