Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2010 14:52:59 -0600

891 
FXPQ60 PGUM 282052
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
652 AM CHST WED DEC 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DID TWEAK A FEW OF THE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGE
ELSEWHERE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE CHANGING SOME OF WHAT THEY WERE
PREDICTING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. EARLIER MODELS PUSHED A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS FAR SOUTH AS GUAM ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST
GFS NOW PUSHES IT DOWN TO ONLY BETWEEN ANATAHAN AND SAIPAN. NGPS
ONLY PUSHES THE SHEAR LINE DOWN TO PAGAN. SINCE THIS IS SO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL OPINION FIGURE IT WAS BEST TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST. HIGH WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC IS
STILL PREDICTED TO PUSH SWELLS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE N-NW SWELL IS STILL PREDICTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND... HOWEVER MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FLUX. PREDICTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
WHILE THIS DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE LEADING TO A MORE ACCURATE
PORTRAYAL OF EVENTS IT MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHT HICCUP IN THE MODELS
AND SO WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN AND A BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS IS FOUND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DRAPED ACROSS THE
MARSHALLS WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION IS FOUND FARTHER WEST FROM
KOSRAE TO BEYOND POHNPEI. WITH EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE NEAR POHNPEI...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGERING MOST
OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES INCREASING SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS.
FOR KOSRAE...SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET FOR EASTERN REEFS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT NEAR A WESTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM WITH TRAILING SHOWERS PASSING OVER
CHUUK. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED TONIGHT WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AT CHUUK. CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST AT YAP AND PALAU TODAY WITH A BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR YAP TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH REACHING THE TWO
LOCATIONS THURSDAY...REINFORCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO POINT TO A DEVELOPING LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR. BASED ON CURRENT
DATA...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEFORE THE START OF NEXT
WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENTS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT

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