From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Dec 29 15:20:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBT7KWtM006670 for ; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 15:20:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBT60Mb8000589; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:12 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4902539 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:11 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBT7KBnX013921 for ; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:11 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBT7K57h028894 for ; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:11 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 034E73FE0004; Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:04 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101229072005.034E73FE0004@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:04 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 987 FXPQ60 PGUM 290719 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 519 PM CHST WED DEC 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS NORTH OF SAIPAN...BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. && .DISCUSSION... GFS40 AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS SHEAR LINE WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH FARTHER. THE NEXT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING THOUGH. ECMWF BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO GUAM ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS40 STILL KEEPS IT A LITTLE NORTH...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 18Z RUN. LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS THE MODELS PROG LOW WINDS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. && .MARINE... LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BEHIND A LARGE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF JAPAN COULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD FORECAST BY THE WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL WOULD REQUIRE BOTH HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALL THAT REMAINS BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF KOSRAE AND NEAR POHNPEI AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS. WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS. FOR KOSRAE...SURF HEIGHTS MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET FOR EASTERN REEFS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED BY FRIDAY AT BOTH LOCATIONS. PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAVE BUILT IN AT CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AT POHNPEI CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH MOVES WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY BEFORE THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENTS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.