Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2010 01:20:04 -0600

987 
FXPQ60 PGUM 290719
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
519 PM CHST WED DEC 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
NORTH OF SAIPAN...BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ZONES.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF SAIPAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS SHEAR LINE WILL NOT
ADVANCE MUCH FARTHER. THE NEXT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING THOUGH.
ECMWF BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO GUAM ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS40 STILL
KEEPS IT A LITTLE NORTH...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN
HAS TRENDED IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 18Z RUN. LOWERED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS THE
MODELS PROG LOW WINDS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BEHIND A LARGE FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
JAPAN COULD BE IN THE OFFING. THE HEIGHT AND PERIOD FORECAST BY
THE WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL WOULD REQUIRE BOTH HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALL THAT REMAINS BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO AS 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN WEST
OF KOSRAE AND NEAR POHNPEI AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS. WAVE WATCH
MODEL INDICATES INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS. FOR KOSRAE...SURF HEIGHTS
MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET FOR
EASTERN REEFS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP 
AND KOROR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED BY 
FRIDAY AT BOTH LOCATIONS. PLEASANT CONDITIONS HAVE BUILT IN AT CHUUK 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS 
ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AT POHNPEI CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH
MOVES WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WAVE WATCH
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND
KOROR. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS LIKELY
BEFORE THE START OF NEXT WEEK FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENTS AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.