From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Dec 30 15:29:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBU7T0ZB000620 for ; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:29:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBTFCXMe000588; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:42 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4910990 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:41 -0600 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBU7Sfd9004601 for ; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:41 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBU7SZIA008589 for ; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:41 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 282443FE0006; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:35 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101230072835.282443FE0006@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2010 01:28:35 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 410 FXPQ60 PGUM 300728 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 528 PM CHST THU DEC 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE MARIANAS WATERS ARE BETWEEN A SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... A SHEAR LINE IS STILL HUNG UP NEAR PAGAN IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM OFF ASIA WILL NUDGE IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS40 MODELS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL HANG UP AGAIN JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. FOR THE FORECAST ZONES THIS SHOULD CREATE A REGIME OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. MOS SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONSPIRE TO CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR COOLER THAN USUAL NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE LOWERED THE TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 77 TO 75 TO MATCH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. DEEPER VALLEYS AROUND GUAM COULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...BUT OUR GRIDS JUST DO NOT HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO BE ABLE TO PUT THAT KIND OF DETAIL IN. IF THE SHEAR LINE DOES COME A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND COULD LAST FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVERGING TRADE WINDS FOCUSING SOUTH OF KOSRAE CAUSING A BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE....GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE APPRECIABLY DURING THIS PERIOD. SWELL GENERATED BY A STRONG LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT POHNPEI EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND KOSRAE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SURF TO RISE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IN SWELL HAS BEEN NOTICED IN THE PAST FEW WAVE WATCH RUNS...THE NORTH SWELL STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE YAP MARINE ZONE AND JUST ENTERING THE KOROR MARINE ZONE. LATEST ASCAT SHOWED THE TROUGH WAS WEST OF YAP AT 00Z LATE THIS MORNING. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT CHUUK...WITH AN ADVISORY LIKELY BY SUNDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.