From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 31 05:14:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBULEEv2032307 for ; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 05:14:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBUBKX93017718; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:41 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4916024 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:41 -0600 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBULDeKI021566 for ; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:40 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBULDYqT020024 for ; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:40 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 570B4144B0001; Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:34 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101230211334.570B4144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:34 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 363 FXPQ60 PGUM 302113 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 713 AM CHST FRI DEC 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST TRADE-WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY. NEUTRAL POINT NEAR SAIPAN SATURDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS-E SHOW SHEAR LINE MAKING IT TO SAIPAN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE OTHER MODELS TEND TO KEEP IT AROUND ANATAHAN. 700 MB RH PREDICTIONS TEND TO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OLDER FORECAST SO NO CHANGE IN THAT THINKING. SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND 700 MB RH GET RELATIVELY WILL BE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS THIS NEW YEAR WEEKEND. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LIMIT IT. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELL WILL BE THE RESULT OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR JAPAN. BY MONDAY THIS SWELL IS PREDICTED TO REACH 9 TO 10 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN THIS WAY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SWELL PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE 13 TO 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD WOULD GENERATE SURF OF UP TO 14 FEET ON WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. THEREFORE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SURF WILL PEAK AROUND 14 FEET FOR MOST OF THE TIME THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURF...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE TABLE FOR THIS TIME SHOW THAT THE LEVEL OF THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND TWO FEET. THIS ADDED TO 14 FEET WILL EQUAL 16 FEET. SURF OF THIS HEIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS INUNDATION ON A FEW BEACHES ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS TO SORT THINGS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO HELP RAISE SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL AT THAT TIME. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF KOSRAE WATERS. MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL AND KEEP THIS ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEARING THE DATE LINE WILL PASS BY THE MARSHALLS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS ON THE FORECAST FOR MAJURO. NORTHWEST SWELL STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE AT POHNPEI ON MONDAY AND KOSRAE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE SURF TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY IF MODELS CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED OVER THE PALAU AREA REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR HAVE PUSHED OVER YAP AND KOROR ALLOWING FOR A DECREASED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARINE ZONES TODAY SO KEPT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR YAP AND KOROR. CONVECTION EXITING KOSRAE WATERS MAY AFFECT CHUUK ON SATURDAY BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR PROMPTING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE SATURDAY...WITH CHUUK EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. 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