Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2010 15:13:34 -0600

363 
FXPQ60 PGUM 302113
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
713 AM CHST FRI DEC 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS MORNING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST TRADE-WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT. LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY. NEUTRAL POINT NEAR SAIPAN SATURDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS-E SHOW SHEAR LINE MAKING IT TO SAIPAN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
OTHER MODELS TEND TO KEEP IT AROUND ANATAHAN. 700 MB RH
PREDICTIONS TEND TO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH
OF SAIPAN. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OLDER FORECAST SO NO CHANGE
IN THAT THINKING.

SOUTH OF THE SHEAR LINE DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND 700 MB RH GET RELATIVELY WILL BE LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
THIS ALL ADDS UP TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MARIANAS THIS NEW YEAR WEEKEND. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LIMIT IT.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELL WILL BE THE RESULT OF
STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR JAPAN. BY MONDAY THIS SWELL
IS PREDICTED TO REACH 9 TO 10 FEET. IT WILL REMAIN THIS WAY FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SWELL PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE 13 TO 14 SECONDS. THIS SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD
WOULD GENERATE SURF OF UP TO 14 FEET ON WEST AND NORTH FACING
REEFS. THEREFORE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SURF WILL PEAK
AROUND 14 FEET FOR MOST OF THE TIME THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURF...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE
TABLE FOR THIS TIME SHOW THAT THE LEVEL OF THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE
AROUND TWO FEET. THIS ADDED TO 14 FEET WILL EQUAL 16 FEET. SURF
OF THIS HEIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS INUNDATION ON
A FEW BEACHES ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THERE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS TO SORT THINGS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. THE LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO HELP RAISE SEAS TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL AT THAT TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF KOSRAE WATERS. MODELS INITIALIZED THIS
FEATURE WELL AND KEEP THIS ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF POHNPEI
AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEARING THE DATE
LINE WILL PASS BY THE MARSHALLS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL
EFFECTS ON THE FORECAST FOR MAJURO. NORTHWEST SWELL STILL PROGGED
TO ARRIVE AT POHNPEI ON MONDAY AND KOSRAE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE SURF TO ADVISORY LEVELS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY IF MODELS CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED OVER THE PALAU
AREA REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR HAVE PUSHED OVER YAP AND KOROR ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE MARINE ZONES TODAY SO KEPT A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR YAP AND KOROR. CONVECTION
EXITING KOSRAE WATERS MAY AFFECT CHUUK ON SATURDAY BUT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS
MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR PROMPTING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE
SATURDAY...WITH CHUUK EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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