From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Dec 31 15:37:06 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oBV7b4mx030903 for ; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 15:37:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBV39q0o000588; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4920302 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:47 -0600 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBV7ala7024681 for ; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:47 -0600 (CST) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oBV7aeJF013946 for ; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:47 -0600 (CST) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CFA23144B0001; Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:40 -0600 (CST) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101231073640.CFA23144B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:40 -0600 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 809 FXPQ60 PGUM 310736 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 536 PM CHST FRI DEC 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BENDS SOUTHWARD SOUTH OF A SHEAR LINE AND COVERS THE FORECAST ZONES. && .DISCUSSION... SHEAR LINE STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE DRY TIMES CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS MAY STILL INCREASE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN DECREASED CLOUDINESS...WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW LOWER THAN USUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. && .MARINE... ASCAT SHOWS THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE BUT SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. FETCH LENGTH IS 400 NAUTICAL MILES WITH AT LEAST 12 HOURS OF PERSISTENCE. LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENT IS FOR REAL. EXPECT SURF AND SEA HEIGHTS TO INCREASE DRAMTICALLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME SATURDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OUT OF POHNPEI WATERS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT POHNPEI...BUT WITH LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING MAJURO TONIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP AN EAST SWELL CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT KOSRAE. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE NORTHWEST SWELL TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AT POHNPEI...WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY LIKELY BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AT POHNPEI WILL PASS CHUUK OVERNIGHT. MOST SHOWERS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED BY SATURDAY. A SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. UKMET HOLDS ON TO THE CIRCULATION LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...EVENTUALLY DISSOLVING IT INTO THE TROUGH. NORTHWEST SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR...REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE BY SATURDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.