Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2010 01:36:40 -0600

809 
FXPQ60 PGUM 310736
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
536 PM CHST FRI DEC 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BENDS SOUTHWARD SOUTH OF A SHEAR LINE AND COVERS
THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE DRY TIMES CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS MAY STILL INCREASE IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN DECREASED CLOUDINESS...WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW LOWER THAN USUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ASCAT SHOWS THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
SHEAR LINE BUT SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. FETCH LENGTH IS 400 NAUTICAL
MILES WITH AT LEAST 12 HOURS OF PERSISTENCE. LOOKS LIKE THIS EVENT
IS FOR REAL. EXPECT SURF AND SEA HEIGHTS TO INCREASE DRAMTICALLY
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO 
MOVE WEST OUT OF POHNPEI WATERS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT POHNPEI...BUT WITH 
LITTLE SHOWER COVERAGE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING MAJURO 
TONIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS IT 
PUSHES WESTWARD. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP AN EAST SWELL CLOSE 
TO ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT KOSRAE. LATEST MODEL RUN 
SHOWS THE NORTHWEST SWELL TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AT POHNPEI...WITH A 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY LIKELY BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AT POHNPEI WILL PASS CHUUK OVERNIGHT.
MOST SHOWERS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO
ISOLATED BY SATURDAY. A SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DISSIPATED. UKMET HOLDS ON TO THE
CIRCULATION LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...EVENTUALLY DISSOLVING
IT INTO THE TROUGH. NORTHWEST SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE
SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AT YAP AND KOROR...REQUIRING A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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