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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220101091851.225A41C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2022 09:18:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010918
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure will build behind
a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico Sun and=20
southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting tightening pressure
gradient along with cooler, drier air following the front will
altogether deliver gap winds to minimal gale force into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec Sun night through Mon. Seas will build to 17 ft
offshore before winds start to diminish below gale force Mon
night. The gale-force gap winds will generate a large plume of=20
swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm downstream=20
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For further
details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!oz6LyZGqk_uIsDx79fmUZy5zj5Cvr_DadKvfiYSJwV7Wys9Kbf1lkKeqGpKjoyRn4=
xm5P9ib$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 06N90W to 08N105W.
Segments of the ITCZ extend from 08N105W to 09N115W to 08N123W,=20
and from 08N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection from 11N to 13N between 125W and=20
127W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 09N between 130W
and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A frontal boundary is starting to stall from near El Paso, Texas
to La Paz, Baja California Sur to Clarion Island. A pair of
scatterometer passes from 04 UTC and 0540 UTC showed moderate to
fresh winds following the front off Baja California Norte and
over the central Gulf of California. An earlier altimeter
satellite pass from 02 UTC showed seas were 8 to 10 ft north of=20
Punta Eugenia, and that is probably still the case in NW swell.=20

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later=20
today. High pressure building west of the area behind the front=20
will support strong westerly gap winds early this morning in the=20
northern Gulf of California, followed by fresh to strong=20
northerly winds late tonight into Sun across most of the Gulf of=20
California and briefly off Cabo Corrientes tonight. Looking=20
ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue into Mon=20
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region this morning and extend offshore to near 90W, with light=20
to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N
winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds
over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough.=20
Seas are in the 4-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft
across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of
Papagayo will diminish this morning as high pressure north of the
area weakens. Fresh to strong pulse will return to the Gulf of=20
Papagayo by Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A stationary front from near La Paz, Baja California Sur to just
west of Clarion Island. High pressure is building behind the=20
front north of 20N west of 120W, supporting moderate to fresh N=20
to NE winds and seas to 9 ft mainly from 14N to 23N west of 125W.
In addition, NW swell to 9 ft is evident behind the front north=20
of 20N east of 125W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident
elsewhere north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds=20
elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Trade wind=20
convergence in the lower levels along with upper level divergence
is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 11N
to 13N between 125W and 127W, along the ITCZ.

NW swell will continue to spread southward, then slowly subside=20
through Sun. Looking ahead, farther east, swell generated from=20
the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell=20
in excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into
mid week.


$$
Christensen


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