Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220101114139.51D901C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2022 11:41:39 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1641060584-74861-1827"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1641060584-74861-1827
Content-Type: text/plain


365 
AWIO20 FMEE 011139

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/01 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


A trans-equatorial flow is present west of 80oE. The mixing zone with the trade wind flow is a little better defined than yesterday and is now similar to a still defined two-axis Monsoon trough (MT) pattern with a branch positioned between 10S and 15S between 50E-60E and another branch positioned east of 70E between 05S and 10S. However, this structure is not yet fully established and within 48 hours, with the restriction of the trans-equatorial flow only to the west of 70E, the easternmost branch will resume a NET pattern westerly low levels flow along the equator instead of a trans-equatorial flow) until mid next week. Further west, the convergence between the trade winds and the monsoon flow will become ill-defined again this weekend and in the first part of the week before improving beyond that.

Note that 3 low-level cyclonic circulations are visible within the pseudo-MT present east of 70E: around 8S/70E, 8S/81E and 10S/91E (with the best defined low-level vortex). In an mainly dry environment, none of these 3 circulations have any potential to develop over the next 5 days.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

The RSMC Cyclone of La Reunion wishes you all the best for the year 2022.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

------------=_1641060584-74861-1827
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1641060584-74861-1827--