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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220101161615.8E4121C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2022 16:16:15 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 011616
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure will build=20
behind a cold front forecast to move through the western Gulf of
Mexico Sun and southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting=20
tightening pressure gradient along with cooler, drier air=20
following the front will combine to deliver gale-force gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Mon. Seas will=20
build to 17 ft offshore before winds start to diminish below gale
force Mon night. The gale-force gap winds will generate a large=20
plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm=20
downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For=20
further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!szaedaRFAC2IUISg0Ed20jOSP0iV1ePOuL2pJKqK7vhGvUdDLz3woe95t_jnciFFT=
5ACYlSM$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N75W to 09.5N79W to 08N101W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N101W to 09N113W to 08.5N126W to 11N138W
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from=20
08N to 11.5N between 118W and 123W. Scattered moderate to strong=20
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 126W and 141W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A frontal boundary has begun to stall across northern portions of
the Sierra Madre Occidentales to near Culiacan, Mexico across the
entrance to the Gulf of California, to just N of Clarion Island.
A pair of scatterometer passes from 04 UTC and 0540 UTC showed=20
moderate to fresh NW winds following the front off Baja=20
California Norte and over the central Gulf of California. A
recent altimeter satellite pass from 12 UTC showed seas 6 to 8=20
ft across the far northern Gulf of California. Seas are currently were
8 to 11 ft across the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, and
6 to 9 ft between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate=20
through tonight. High pressure building west of the area behind=20
the front will support strong westerly gap winds this morning in
the northern Gulf of California, followed by fresh to strong=20
northerly winds late tonight into Sun across most of the Gulf of=20
California and briefly off Cabo Corrientes tonight. Looking=20
ahead, a gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue into Mon=20
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region this morning and extend offshore to near 89W, with light=20
to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N
winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds
over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough.=20
Seas are in the 4-7 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5=20
ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of
Papagayo will diminish this morning as high pressure north of the
area weakens. Fresh to strong pulse will return to the Gulf of=20
Papagayo by Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A stationary front extends from the entrance to the Gulf of=20
California, to just N of Clarion Island. High pressure is=20
building behind the front north of 20N west of 120W, supporting=20
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas 7 to 9 ft mainly from=20
14N to 23N west of 120W. In addition, NW swell to 10 ft is=20
evident behind the front north of 20N east of 124W. Gentle to=20
moderate NE to E winds are evident elsewhere north of 10N, with=20
gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4=20
to 6 ft seas. Trade wind convergence in the lower levels along=20
with upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and=20
thunderstorms from 12N TO 17N between 126W AND 141W, along and N
of the ITCZ.

NW swell will continue to spread southward, then slowly subside=20
through Sun. Looking ahead, farther east, swell generated from=20
the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell=20
in excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into
mid week.

$$=20
Stripling


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