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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220101212618.B44351C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2022 21:26:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure will build=20
behind a cold front forecast to move through the western Gulf of
Mexico Sun and southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting=20
tightening pressure gradient along with cooler, drier air=20
following the front will combine to deliver gale-force gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through early Tue
morning. Peak seas will build 16-18 ft offshore before winds=20
start to diminish below gale force early Tue. The gale-force gap
winds will generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft=20
extending as far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vXr26bJS8hnOm07S-s0AHEh09C3XI5EB0OdbiNXT7bc8ItA0KyvIDDX6kp7rYnGNx=
WRz4Ule$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N75W to 09.5N84W to 09N104W.=20
The ITCZ extends from 06N110W to 09N124W to 11.5N135W to beyond=20
11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from=20
08N to 17N between 119W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A frontal boundary stalled across northern portions of the=20
Sierra Madre Occidentales to near Mazatlan, Mexico across the=20
entrance to the Gulf of California, to just S of Clarion Island.
Early afternoon scatterometer passes showed gentle to moderate N
to NE winds following the front across the Baja California
offshore waters, and fresh northerly winds across the extreme
northern Gulf of California. Seas are currently were 8 to 10 ft=20
across the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia, and 6 to 9 ft=20
between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas have built 5 to 6
ft across the northern Gulf of California and are 2-4 ft
elsewhere inside the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate=20
through tonight. High pressure building west of the area behind=20
the front will support fresh to strong northerly winds late=20
tonight into Sun across most of the Gulf of California and=20
briefly off Cabo Corrientes tonight. Looking ahead, a gale force=20
gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region late Sun and continue through early Tue
morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region this=20
afternoon and extend offshore to near 89W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are
over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the=20
remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in=20
the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-6 ft across the
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will
pulse to fresh each of the next few nights as high pressure=20
north of the area weakens. Fresh to strong pulsing will return=20
to the Gulf of Papagayo on Mon. Light to gentle winds will occur
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate=20
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A stationary front extends from the entrance to the Gulf of=20
California, to just S of Clarion Island. High pressure is=20
building behind the front north of 20N west of 122W, supporting=20
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas 7 to 9 ft mainly from=20
13N to 24N west of 122W. In addition, NW swell to 9 ft continues
to move through the regional waters behind the front north of=20
22N east of 126W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident=20
elsewhere north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds=20
elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Trade wind=20
convergence in the lower levels along with upper level divergence
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 08N=20
TO 17N between 119W AND 140W, along and N of the ITCZ.

NW swell will continue to spread southward and subside through=20
Sun. High pressure behind the front will settle along about 30N
on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to locally strong
trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through mid week.=20
Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east of=20
110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into mid week.

$$
Stripling


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