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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220102035405.47AB31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2022 03:54:05 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 020353
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure will build=20
behind a cold front forecast to move through the western Gulf of
Mexico Sun and southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting=20
tightening pressure gradient along with cooler, drier air=20
following the front will combine to deliver gale-force gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through early Tue
morning. Peak seas will build 16-18 ft offshore before winds=20
start to diminish below gale force early Tue. The gale-force gap
winds will generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft=20
extending as far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vqrxW9DFtr9v3wLLwXhjEjw-u1XI7agTzyzA5XkychMuPUBaWIZ1ZYnying1FK18v=
LGbDUJP$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N90W. Segments of the
ITCZ extend from 08N90W to 07N100W to 10N120W, from 09N122W to
09N130W, and from 09N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 119W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The front that was previously across the southern Gulf of
California has dissipated. Recent observations show winds have
diminished off Baja California, but seas are still near 8 ft in
the vicinity of Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte. High
pressure building west of the region is supporting moderate to=20
fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California and off Cabo
Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters south of Punta
Eugenia, and 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the high pressure building west of the area=20
will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds tonight
into Sun across most of the Gulf of California and briefly off=20
Cabo Corrientes overnight. A gale force gap wind event is=20
expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late=20
Sun and continue into early Tue morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region this=20
evening and extend offshore to near 90W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are
over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the=20
remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in=20
the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-6 ft across the=20
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh gap winds will=20
continue over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next few days.=20
Fresh to strong pulsing will return to the Gulf of Papagayo Mon=20
night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the=20
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of=20
the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is building north of 20N west of 122W, supporting=20
moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas 7 to 9 ft mainly from=20
13N to 20N west of 120W. A ship observation near 13N131W was
showing fresh to strong NE winds, north of trough along 131W
extending just south of there. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms were also evident in that area. In addition, NW=20
swell to 9 ft continues to move through the regional waters=20
behind the front north of 22N east of 125W. Gentle to moderate=20
NE to E winds are evident elsewhere north of 10N, with gentle to=20
moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft=20
seas.=20

NW swell will continue to spread southward and subside through=20
Sun. High pressure behind the front will settle along about 30N
on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to locally strong
trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through mid week.=20
Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east of=20
110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into mid week.

$$
Christensen


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