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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220102093737.56DD31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2022 09:37:37 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 020937
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas to 18 ft are
forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight and lasting into
Tue. Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front=20
forecast to move through the western Gulf of Mexico Sun and=20
southern Mexico Sun night. The resulting tightening pressure=20
gradient along with cold, drier air following the front will=20
combine to deliver gap winds reaching strong gale force across=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through early Tue morning. Peak=20
seas will build 16-18 ft offshore before winds start to diminish=20
below gale force early Tue. The gale- force gap winds will=20
generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as=20
far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid
week. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!qtdbF_edjrfqFpKGgDQFnerpE5FeDd5kTTXenLfQI7omdbzPaC9Nja9yDgTZEUejt=
MX-EDX9$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07.5N95W. Segments of=20
the ITCZ extend from 07.5N95W to 06N110W to 09N120W, from=20
09N122W to 09N130W, and from 09N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 130W and=20
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Cooler air and building high pressure north and west of the=20
region are supporting fresh winds over the Gulf of California, as
registered by a scatterometer satellite pass from around 0530=20
UTC. The scatterometer also showed locally fresh to strong gap NE
gap winds on the Pacific coast of Baja California, just north of
Punta Eugenia, and near the San Ignacio Lagoon in northern Baja=20
California Sur. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of=20
California, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 20N. Farther south,=20
the building ridge pattern is supporting a small area of fresh to
strong N winds off Cabo Corrientes with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gentle=20
NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere south of 20N.

For the forecast, high pressure building west of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds across most=20
of the Gulf of California through tonight, with fresh NW winds=20
persisting over the central Gulf of California through Thu. Fresh
to strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes will diminish later=20
today. A gale force gap wind event is expected to commence across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight and continue into=20
early Tue morning.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region this=20
evening and extend offshore to near 90W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate N winds are
over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over the=20
remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in=20
the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-6 ft across the=20
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh gap winds will=20
continue over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next few days.=20
Fresh to strong pulsing will return to the Gulf of Papagayo Mon=20
night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the=20
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of=20
the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered north of 20N west of 120W. A scatterometer
satellite pass from 05 UTC indicated fresh to strong winds=20
between the high pressure and a pair of surface troughs farther=20
south in the deep tropics. A pair of recent ship observations=20
showed strong winds near 15N130W and 15N134W, north of these=20
surface troughs. Recent altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 9=20
ft in this area as well, mainly between 10N and 20N west of 120W.
An upper trough is evident from 05N to 15N between 130W and=20
135W. This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from=20
10N and 15N between 130W and 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
NE to E winds are evident north of 10N, with gentle to moderate=20
SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread southward and
subside through today. High pressure behind the front will=20
settle along about 30N on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to
locally strong trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through
mid week. Additional northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will=20
enter the waters north of 25N west of 125W Mon night and Tue, and
reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas over much=20
of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W by mid=20
week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east
of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into mid week.

$$
Christensen


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