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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220102115724.028671C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2022 11:57:23 +0000
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115 
AWIO20 FMEE 021122

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/02 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


A trans-equatorial flow is present west of 80oE. The mixing zone with the trade wind flow is now similar to a still defined two-axis Monsoon trough (MT) pattern with a branch positioned between 10S and 15S between 50E-60E and another branch positioned east of 70E between 05S and 10S. However, this structure is not yet fully established and within 48 hours, with the restriction of the trans-equatorial flow only to the west of 70E, the easternmost branch will resume a NET pattern westerly low levels flow along the equator instead of a trans-equatorial flow) until mid next week. Further west, the convergence between the trade winds and the monsoon flow will become ill-defined in the first part of the week before improving beyond that.

Note that a low-level cyclonic circulation is visible within the pseudo-MT present east of 70E around 10S/90E. In an mainly dry environment, this circulation presentes no potential to develop over the next 5 days.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

The RSMC Cyclone of La Reunion wishes you all the best for the year 2022.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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