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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220102160636.8C82D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2022 16:06:36 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 021606
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas to 18 ft are
forecast to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as a
prolonged gap wind gale event starts tonight and lasts into Tue.
Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front forecast to=20
move through the western Gulf of Mexico today and southern=20
Mexico tonight. The resulting tightening pressure gradient along
with cold, drier air following the front will combine to deliver
gap winds reaching strong gale force with gusts to near storm
force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with gales=20
persisting through early Tue morning. Peak seas will build 16-18=20
ft offshore before winds start to diminish below gale force early
Tue. The gale-force gap winds will generate a large plume of=20
swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm downstream=20
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For further=20
details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!poGz6QoWxtgN1Dh-a5hBuRa0l-DXZctpt__CPOuxP20w6OCRY9W_xigWSYrzkxatA=
RiNLckN$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 08.5N96W TO 06.5N100W.
The ITCZ extend from 06.5N100W to 06N113W to 09N122W to beyond=20
09.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from=20
08.5N to 17.5N between 127W and 133.5W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 07.5N to 11N W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Cooler air and building high pressure north and west of the=20
region are supporting fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of=20
California, as verified by a scatterometer satellite pass from=20
around 0530 UTC. The scatterometer also showed locally fresh to=20
strong gap NE gap winds on the Pacific coast of Baja California,=20
just north of Punta Eugenia, and near the San Ignacio Lagoon in=20
northern Baja California Sur. Seas are likely 4 to 7 ft in the=20
Gulf of California, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 20N. Farther
south, the building ridge pattern is supporting a small area of=20
fresh to strong N winds off Cabo Corrientes with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Gentle NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere south of 20N.

For the forecast, high pressure building west of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds across most=20
of the Gulf of California through tonight, where a significant
area of 8 ft seas will be seen across south and central=20
portions. Fresh NW winds will persist over the central Gulf of=20
California through Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo=20
Corrientes will diminish later today. A gale force gap wind event
is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region=20
late tonight and continue into early Tue morning, spreading a
large area of 8-12 ft seas well southwestward of Tehuantepec.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region this=20
morning and extend offshore to near 89W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate NW to N=20
winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds=20
over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough.=20
Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-6 ft
across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh gap winds will=20
continue over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next few days.=20
Fresh to strong pulsing winds will return to the Gulf of=20
Papagayo Mon night through Wed morning, with seas 8-9 ft=20
extending westward beyond 90W. Light to gentle winds will occur=20
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate=20
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered along 33N west of 122W. A=20
scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC indicated fresh to=20
strong winds between the high pressure and a pair of surface=20
troughs farther south in the deep tropics. A pair of overnight=20
ship observations showed strong winds near 15N130W and 15N134W,=20
north of these surface troughs. Recent altimeter passes showed=20
seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area as well, mainly between 10N and=20
20N west of 120W. An upper trough is evident from 05N to 15N=20
between 130W and 135W. This is enhancing scattered showers and=20
thunderstorms from 08.5N TO 17.5N between 127W AND 133.5W.=20
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of=20
10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of=20
10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread southward and
subside through today. High pressure behind the front will=20
settle along about 30N on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to
locally strong trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through
mid week. Additional northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will=20
enter the waters north of 25N west of 125W Mon night and Tue, and
reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas over much=20
of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W by mid=20
week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east
of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into mid week.

$$
Stripling


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