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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220102211700.F2F911C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2022 21:17:00 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 022116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas to 18 ft are
forecast to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as a
prolonged gap wind gale event begins tonight and lasts into Tue
morning. Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front=20
that is moving through the western Gulf of Mexico today and then
move across southern Mexico tonight. The resulting tightening=20
pressure gradient along with cold, drier air following the front=20
will combine to deliver gap winds reaching strong gale force with
gusts to near storm force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
tonight, with gales persisting through Tue morning. Peak seas=20
will build 16-18 ft offshore on MOn before winds start to=20
diminish below gale force Tue. The gale-force gap winds will=20
generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as=20
far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid
week. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!ttzJAd7rYNQfYH6r-cCQPuF7T2oKA4hO9ffTx7yCMThmsfyrDvJR0ljKwOH3chgQ0=
9smiQRK$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N75W to 07N78.5W to 09N83W=20
TO 06.5N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N100W to 06N107W to=20
11N131W, then resumes from near 09N133W to beyond 09.5N140W.=20
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N
to 06N E of 80W, and from 07N to 09N W of 137W. Scattered=20
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 18.5N=20
between 126W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Building high pressure north and west of the region today is
transporting cooler air, and supporting fresh to strong winds=20
over the full length of the Gulf of California, as verified by=20
early afternoon scatterometer satellite passes. The scatterometer
data also showed locally fresh to strong gap NE gap winds on the
Pacific coast of Baja California, just north of Punta Eugenia,=20
and near the San Ignacio Lagoon in northern Baja California Sur.=20
Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of California, and 5 to 7=20
ft elsewhere north of 20N. Farther south, the building ridge=20
pattern is supporting a small area of fresh N winds off Cabo=20
Corrientes with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are
noted elsewhere south of 20N.

For the forecast, high pressure building west of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds across most=20
of the Gulf of California this afternoon through tonight, where=20
a significant area of 8 ft seas will develop across south and=20
central portions. Fresh NW winds will persist over the central=20
Gulf of California through Thu. Fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo
Corrientes will diminish this evening through tonight. A strong gale
force gap wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region tonight and continue into Tue morning,=20
spreading a large area of 8-12 ft seas well southwestward of=20
Tehuantepec.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region this afternoon and extend offshore to near 89W, with=20
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.=20
Gentle NW to N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to
moderate winds over the remainder of the waters south of the=20
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of=20
Papagayo, and 3-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh gap winds will=20
continue over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next few days.=20
Fresh to strong pulsing winds will return to the Gulf of=20
Papagayo Mon night through Wed morning, with seas building
offshore to 8-9 ft and extending westward beyond 90W. Light to=20
gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough,=20
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon=20
trough. Large NW swell generated by a strong gale-force gap wind
event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread into the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late Mon afternoon
through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near 32N125W. Afternoon=20=20
scatterometer satellite passes showed fresh to strong winds
between 13N and 22N and W of 122W, occurring due to the pressure
gradient between the associated high pressure ridge and a pair=20
of surface troughs farther south in the deep tropics, along 132W=20
and 140W. Recent altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 9 ft in=20
this area as well, mainly between 10N and 18N west of 120W. An=20
upper trough is evident from 05N to 20N between 135W and 145W.=20
This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 07.5N
TO 18.5N between 126W AND 132W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE
to E winds are evident north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE=20
to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread southward and
subside through today. High pressure behind the front will=20
settle along about 30N on Mon to produce a broad area of fresh to
locally strong trade winds from 12N to 24N and W of 120W through
mid week, as the current surface troughs move westward across the
tropics. Additional northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will enter
the waters north of 25N west of 125W Mon night and Tue, and=20
reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas over much=20
of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W by mid=20
week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft east
of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into Wed.

$$
Stripling


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