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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220103023230.718D51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 02:32:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030232
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas to 18 ft are
forecast to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as a
prolonged gap wind gale event begins tonight and lasts into Tue
morning. Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front=20
that is moving through the western Gulf of Mexico today and then
move across southern Mexico tonight. The resulting tightening=20
pressure gradient along with cold, dry air following the front=20
will combine to deliver gap winds reaching strong gale force with
gusts to near storm force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
tonight, with gales persisting through Tue morning. Peak seas=20
will build 16-18 ft offshore on Mon before winds start to=20
diminish below gale force Tue. The strong gales will generate a=20
large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm
downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For=20
further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!sZUA-CwjqrTiA8cgVDgDiHbGzvFXP99yTF0zHaYsrazMOuV7Ts7qUlzXo_9XVugZd=
pn7UNVi$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N90W to 08N95W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 08N95W to 11N102W to 08N110W to beyond 12N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N=20
to 15N between 128W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Building high pressure north and west of the region is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the full length of the Gulf of=20
California, as verified by early afternoon scatterometer=20
satellite passes. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf
of California, and 5 to 8 ft in the central and southern Gulf of
California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over open waters north=20
of 20N. Farther south, the building ridge pattern is supporting a
small area of fresh N winds off Cabo Corrientes with 5 to 7 ft=20
seas. Gentle NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere south of=20
20N.

For the forecast, the high pressure building west of the area=20
will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds across=20
most of the Gulf of California through tonight, with fresh NW=20
winds persisting over the central Gulf of California through Thu.
A strong gale force gap wind event will commence across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region overnight and continue into Tue morning,=20
spreading large NE swell well beyond the outer offshore waters.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region and extend offshore to near 90W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle NW to N winds
are over the Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds over=20
the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Seas are
in the 5-7 range across the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across=20
the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh gap winds will=20
continue over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next few days.=20
Fresh to strong pulsing winds will return to the Gulf of Papagayo
Mon night through Wed morning. Light to gentle winds will occur=20
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate=20
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. A strong gale-force=20
gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will generate large=20
NW swell to impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
late Mon through Tue night.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1024 mb high pressure is centered near 31N128W. Earlier=20
scatterometer satellite passes showed fresh to strong winds=20
between 10N and 20N and W of 125W, occurring due to the pressure=20
gradient between the associated high pressure ridge and a surface
trough farther south in the deep tropics, along 131W/132W.=20
Recent altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area as=20
well. An upper trough is evident from 05N to 20N between 135W and
145W. This is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from
10N to 15N between 128W and 132W, near the associated surface=20
trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident=20
north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere=20
south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread southward and
subside through tonight. High pressure will continue to support=20
a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to=20
25N and west of 120W through mid week, as the current surface=20
trough moves westward across the tropics. Additional northerly=20
swell in excess of 8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west=20
of 125W Mon night and Tue, and reinforce the earlier swell to=20
create 8 to 11 ft seas over much of the area north of a line from
Los Cabos to 05N140W by mid week. Farther east, swell generated=20
from the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed=20
swell in excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late=20
Mon into Wed.

$$
Christensen


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