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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220103084359.0A5861C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 08:43:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 030843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas as high
as 18 ft will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue
morning. Strong high pressure is building behind a cold front=20
that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico southern Mexico Sun
night. The resulting tightening pressure gradient along with=20
cold, dry air following the front is combining to deliver gap=20
winds reaching strong gale force with gusts to near storm force=20
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. Peak seas=20
will build 16-18 ft offshore today before winds start to diminish
below gale force Tue. The strong gales will generate a large=20
plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as far as 700 nm=20
downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For=20
further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!p0yewPhPRy02fZRT5dJb2BepMDlXG8jZmsirHKpRJDjUHHYo5--HDWmoGuQktX0D4=
drDrs1J$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 06N95W. Segments of the
ITCZ extend from 06N95W to 08.5N11W to 09N128W, and from 09N132W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N to 15N between 128W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong 1041 high pressure centered north of the area over the
Great Basin is supporting fresh to strong winds over the full=20
length of the Gulf of California, as verified by a 05 UTC=20
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in the=20
northern Gulf of California, and 5 to 8 ft in the central and=20
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over=20
open waters north of 20N. Farther south, gentle NW winds and 3 to
5 ft are noted elsewhere south of 20N.=20

For the forecast, strong gales will persist across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region into Tue morning, spreading large NE swell=20
well beyond the outer offshore waters. Farther north, high=20
pressure north of the area over the Great Basin will continue to
support fresh to strong northerly winds across mainly the=20
central Gulf of California through this morning, with fresh NW=20
winds persisting over the central Gulf of California through Thu.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds are possible again over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night as another cold front moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico.=20=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region and extend offshore to near 90W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh NW to N
winds over the northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate=20
winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters south=20
of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 range across the Gulf=20
of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse into the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed morning. Light to gentle winds will=20
occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to=20
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. A strong=20
gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will=20
generate large NW swell to impact the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters late today through Tue night. Looking ahead,=20
fresh to strong gap winds may again pulse across the Gulf of=20
Papagayo by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1024 mb high pressure is centered near 31N128W. A trough is
analyzed near 132W, near an area of showers and thunderstorms
reaching from 12N to 15N between 128W and 131W. The surface trough=20
along with the shower and thunderstorm activity is supported by=20
an upper trough reaching from 20N135W to 13N130W. Scatterometer=20
satellite passes from around 06 UTC showed fresh to strong winds=20
between the trough and the high pressure, specifically from 09N=20
and 12N between 130W and 132W. A slightly earlier altimeter pass=20
showed 8 to 10 ft seas in this area as well. Elsewhere, gentle=20
to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 10N, with gentle=20
to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft=20
seas.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W through mid week, as the current surface trough=20
moves westward across the tropics. Additional northerly swell in=20
excess of 8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west of 125W=20
tonight and Tue, and reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to=20
11 ft seas over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos=20
to 05N140W by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the=20
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in=20
excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into=20
Wed.

$$
Christensen


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