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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220103110812.D9CAD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 11:08:12 +0000
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706 
AWIO20 FMEE 031105

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/03 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


A trans-equatorial flow is present west of 65oE. The mixing zone with the trade wind flow is now similar to a  Monsoon trough (MT) pattern  positioned between 11S and 16S. The monsoon flow is expected to strengthen along the African coasts, and establish west to 75E at the end of the week.

East of 70E, the  NET pattern (westerly low levels flow along the equator instead of a trans-equatorial flow) should shift east of 80E by the end of the week.

Note that a low-level cyclonic circulation is visible within the pseudo-MT present east of 70E  near 90E. In an mainly dry environment, this circulation presents no potential to develop over the next 5 days.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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