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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220103160530.551221C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 16:05:29 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 031605
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales to 45 kt and seas
as high as 18 ft will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
this morning. Strong high pressure is building behind a cold
front that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico southern=20
Mexico Sun night. The resulting tightening pressure gradient=20
along with cold, dry air following the front is combining to=20
deliver gap winds reaching strong gale force with gusts to near=20
storm force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with
gales expected to continue through Tue morning. Peak seas of=20
16-18 ft will prevail offshore today, before winds and seas
gradually start to diminish tonight through Tue morning, then
fall below gale force around midday Tue. The strong gales will=20
generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft extending as=20
far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid
week. For further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!vbeM0VxiBuaXhrkZXyKN2nAQV_uID8sPTMKL0xBE8zYIY7Y7nfSkUYIGQ5A1AAxZr=
MiR_9ad$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N76W to 10.5N81W to 06N98W.=20
The ITCZ extends from 06N98W to 08.5N113W to 10N131W, then=20
resumes from 10N134W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 03.5N to 06.5N E of 87W. Scattered=20
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 18N=20
between 122W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong 1047 high pressure centered north of the area over the
Great Basin is supporting fresh to strong winds over the full=20
length of the Gulf of California, as verified by a 05 UTC=20
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are likely 3 to 6 ft in the=20
northern Gulf of California, and 6 to 8 ft in the central and=20
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell elsewhere
over open waters north of 20N. Farther south, gentle NW winds=20
and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere south of 20N.=20

For the forecast, strong gales will persist across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region into Tue morning, spreading large NE swell=20
well beyond the outer offshore waters. Farther north, high=20
pressure north of the area over the Great Basin will continue to
support fresh to strong northerly winds across mainly the=20
central Gulf of California through this morning, with fresh NW=20
winds persisting over the central Gulf of California through Thu.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds are possible again over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night as another cold front moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico.=20=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
region and extend offshore to near 88W, with light to gentle=20
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. An overnight=20
scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh NW to N=20
winds over the northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate=20
winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 range across the Gulf of
Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, winds will increase across the Papagayo region
by this evening as strong high pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico and NW Caribbean. This will produce fresh to strong winds
pulsing across the Papagayo region through Wed morning, with seas
building to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere=20
north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds=20
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. A strong gale-force gap=20
wind event across the Tehuantepec region will generate large NW=20
swell to impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
late today through Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap=20
winds may again pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1025 mb high pressure is centered near 31N132W. A trough in the
deep tropics is analyzed near 132W, near an area of showers and=20
thunderstorms reaching from 07.5N to 18N between 122W and 132W.=20
The surface trough along with the shower and thunderstorm=20
activity is supported by an upper trough reaching from 20N135W to
13N130W. Scatterometer satellite passes from around 06 UTC=20
showed fresh to strong winds between the trough and the high=20
pressure, specifically from 09N and 12N between 130W and 132W. A=20
slightly earlier altimeter pass showed 8 to 10 ft seas in this=20
area as well. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are=20
evident north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds=20
elsewhere south of 10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W through mid week, as the current surface trough=20
moves westward across the tropics. Additional northerly swell in=20
excess of 8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west of 125W=20
tonight and Tue, and reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to=20
11 ft seas over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos=20
to 05N140W by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the=20
gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in=20
excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into=20
Wed.

$$
Stripling


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