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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220104025923.5D79D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2022 02:59:23 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 040259
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong gales and seas as high=20
as 16 ft will persist across and downstream of the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec overnight. Strong high pressure is building behind a
cold front that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico and=20
southern Mexico Sun and Sun night. The resulting tight pressure=20
gradient along with cold, dry air following the front is=20
combining to deliver gale-force gap winds across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec this afternoon, with gales expected to continue=20
through Tue morning. Peak seas of 14-16 ft prevail offshore
currently, as observed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Winds and seas will gradually start to diminish through Tue=20
morning, then fall below gale force around midday Tue. The strong
gales will generate a large plume of swell in excess of 8 ft=20
extending as far as 700 nm downstream from the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec through mid week. For further details, please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!tWmwrJpZpfQRQqFtAgRThgXmivMTJcMGWgGuAIgOULmtChuEka3Lj_TdL8zTsaAjv=
I_JssdS$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 09N110W to beyond 08N140W.=20
Scattered moderate is noted from 08N to 10N between 115W and=20
121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

1031 high pressure centered north of the area over the Great=20
Basin continues to support fresh to strong winds over much of the
central and southern portions of the Gulf of California.=20
Moderate to fresh N winds prevail across the northern Gulf, where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the central and
southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell=20
elsewhere over open waters north of 20N. Farther south, gentle to
moderate SE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere
south of 20N to western Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area over the=20
Great Basin will support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of=20
California through Thu. Large NW swell will start to move into
the waters off Baja California Norte Tue night, reaching as far
south as Cabo San Lazaro through Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh
gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri
night as another cold front possibly moves across the western=20
Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico, although some=20
uncertainty remains regarding this event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the area is supporting strong=20
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are building=20
accordingly to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo and=20
southern Nicaragua. Moderate NW to N winds prevail over the=20
northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds farther=20
south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon=20
trough. Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo,=20
and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds pulsing across the=20
Papagayo region will persist through Wed morning, with seas=20
to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough. A strong gale-force gap wind event across=20
the Tehuantepec region will generate large NW swell to impact the
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters late today through Tue
night. Looking ahead, fresh gap winds may again pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N131W. A recent ship=20
observation hinted the high pressure continues to support fresh=20
to strong winds from 10N to 25N west of 125W. Recent altimeter
satellite data showed at least to 10 ft in this area as well.=20=20
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of=20
10N, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of=20
10N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W through mid week. Additional NW swell in excess of=20
8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west of 120W tonight and=20
Tue, and reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas=20
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W=20
by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring mixed swell in excess of 8 ft
east of 110W from 06N to 13N from late Mon into Wed.

$$
Christensen


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