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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Corrected Forecast Information For Mexican Offshore Waters. 
Message-ID: <20220104094654.4ADDD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2022 09:46:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 040946 CCA
TWDEP=20

Corrected forecast information for Mexican Offshore Waters.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Gales and 13 to 15 ft seas will
gradually subside today. Strong high pressure is building behind
a cold front that moved through the western Gulf of Mexico and=20
southern Mexico Sun and Sun night. The resulting tight pressure=20
gradient along with cold, dry air following the front is=20
combining to deliver gale- force gap winds across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec this afternoon, with gales expected to continue=20
through Tue morning. Peak seas of 13 to 15 ft prevail offshore=20
currently, as observed by a recent altimeter satellite passes.=20
Winds and seas will gradually diminish through today as the high
pressure moves east. The have been generating a large plume of=20
swell in excess of 8 ft that will extend as far as 700 nm=20
downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. For=20
further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pg1gUF44FoOltBIWSXvAZbjOGPYnuOAlFuSTRqDlel-IQCjdGbeC2hH-ZZPRcJNWa=
ihIn7en$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 05N95W. The
ITCZ continues form 05N95W to 08N110W, and from 08N113W to beyond
08N140W. No significant convection is evident at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure centered north and west of the area continues to=20
support fresh to strong winds over much of the central and=20
southern portions of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh N=20
winds prevail across the northern Gulf, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the central and southern Gulf of=20
California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell elsewhere over open=20
waters north of 20N. Farther south, gentle to moderate SE to E=20
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere south of 20N to=20
western Oaxaca.

For the forecast, gales across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will=20
gradually diminish below gale force through today. Large NE swell=20
from this event is spreading well beyond the outer offshore=20
waters. Farther north, high pressure west of the area will=20
support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California through
Thu. Large NW swell will start to move into the outer offshore=20
waters of Baja California tonight, reach as far south as Cabo San=20
Lazaro Wed, and to Socorro Island by late Thu. Looking ahead,=20
fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
Fri and Fri night as another cold front moves across the western=20
Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the area is supporting strong=20
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are building=20
accordingly to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo and=20
southern Nicaragua. Moderate NW to N winds prevail over the=20
northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds farther=20
south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon=20
trough. Seas are in the 5-6 range across the Gulf of Papagayo,=20
and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the=20
Gulf of Papagayo each night through Wed morning, and again=20
starting Fri night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere=20
north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds=20
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. A strong gale-force gap=20
wind event across the Tehuantepec region will generate large NW=20
swell to impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters=20
today into Wed.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N129W. Recent scatterometer
satellite data shows fresh to strong winds from 10N to 22N west=20
of 125W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data shows at least to 9=20
ft in this area as well, although peak seas to 10 ft is=20
plausible. A surface trough is analyzed along 111W from 09N to=20
13N. A scatterometer pass showed fresh NE winds within 60 nm east
of the trough axis. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds=20
are evident north of 10N west of 105W, with gentle to moderate SE
to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 105W, with 4 to 6 ft=20
seas. East of 105W, fresh NE to E gap winds from the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec and 8 to 12 ft seas in NE swell are evident north of=20
08N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south=20
of 08N.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 120W through mid week. Additional NW swell in excess of=20
8 ft will enter the waters north of 25N west of 120W today, and=20
reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas over much=20
of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W by mid=20
week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to bring mixed swell in excess=20
of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from into Wed.

$$
Christensen


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