Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220104101425.DFBF01C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2022 10:14:25 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1641291272-74861-5279"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1641291272-74861-5279
Content-Type: text/plain


795 
AWIO20 FMEE 041011

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/04 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin has a poorly defined Monsoon trough (MT) configuration positioned around 8oS between 50 and 65E. In this configuration, a trans-equatorial flow is present west of 65oE. The convective activity over the basin is mainly focused on the western part of this MT near the coast of Tanzania. Convective activity is also well present on the African continent.

No circulation is present for the moment to initiate the beginning of cyclogenesis. However, under the effect of the dynamics of altitude in phase with the moisture supply present on the western part of the TM, a low-level clockwise circulation should be set up along the eastern coasts of Madagascar by next weekend. However, the environmental conditions are not favorable to the sustainable intensification of this low-pressure area during the next 5 days.

According to the forecasts, in the longer term (end of the second or beginning of the third week of January), conditions will be more favorable for the establishment of several areas of cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean or even the center of the Mozambique Channel.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


------------=_1641291272-74861-5279
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1641291272-74861-5279--