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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220104211851.DCD2B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2022 21:18:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 042118
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Gale-force northerly gap winds
have diminished to 25-30 kt early this afternoon, and the gale
warning has expired. Peak seas downstream of the Gulf are 10 to=20
14 ft, with seas to 8 ft extending well offshore to near 07N100W.=20
Strong high pressure across the SE U.S. continues to slide
eastward and away from the region, behind a cold front that=20
moved through the western Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico Sun=20
and Sun night. Winds and seas will continue to gradually diminish
through this evening, and then more significantly tonight. For=20
further details, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!t8C9g_GXm4eVjQ4EZESzzZmyKX28enjXlo9JRtKIDxUwjN9YjTp267_lDosRxiCFv=
Adw9JTP$ .

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 05N79W to 06.5N85W to=20
06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 09N115W to 07.5N130W to=20
beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from=20
06.5N to 12N between 116W and 135W, and from 07N to 18N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure centered north of the area has weakened considerably
today, allowing northerly winds within the Gulf of California to
diminished to light across north portions and moderate across
south and central portions. Seas are less than 3 ft north
portions and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds will increase slightly this
evening and tonight. West of Baja California, 1030 mb high
pressure has become nearly stationary well offshore near 30N129W.
The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure along=20
the Sierra Madres is supporting fresh N winds across the Baja=20
Norte waters and gentle to moderate N to NE winds elsewhere to=20
the N of 20N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft with fresh NW swell beginning to
enter the far NW waters this afternoon. Farther south, gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere south=20
of 20N to western Oaxaca.

For the forecast, gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will=20
gradually diminish through tonight and fall below 20 kt Wed
morning before ending Wed evening. Large NE swell from this=20
event is spreading well beyond the outer offshore waters, with
seas across the offshore waters expected to subside to 8 ft or
less by Wed morning. Farther north, high pressure west of Baja
Norte will support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of=20
California tonight through Thu. Large NW swell will move into=20
the offshore waters of Baja California tonight, reach as far=20
south as Cabo San Lazaro Wed, and to Socorro Island by late Thu.=20
Looking ahead, fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec Fri and Fri night as another cold front moves=20
across the western Gulf of Mexico and through southern Mexico.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the area is supporting strong=20
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downwind to near
90W. Seas are building accordingly to near 8 ft downstream of=20
the Gulf of Papagayo and southern Nicaragua. Moderate N to NE winds
prevail over the northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to=20
moderate winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 range across=20
the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast=20
waters.

For the forecast, a significant area of fresh to strong winds=20
will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and remain fresh=20
through midday Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds are expected to
return again starting Fri. Light to gentle winds will occur=20
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate=20
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. The strong gale-
force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region has generated=20
large NW swell that is impacting the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters today and will continue into Wed before quickly=20
subsiding.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1030 mb high pressure centered near 30N129W extends a ridge SE to
offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing fresh=20
trade winds from 10N to 23N west of 120W, and from 10N to 17N
between 114W and 120W. Seas across this area are 7 to 9 ft with a
few small areas to 10 ft in N swell. Concurrent altimeter=20
satellite data shows seas at least to 9 ft in this area as well,=20
although peak seas to 10 ft is forecast. Elsewhere, gentle to=20
moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 10N west of 105W,=20
with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west
of 105W, with 4 to 6 ft seas. East of 105W, fresh NE to E gap=20
winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 7 to 12 ft seas in NE=20
swell are evident north of 07N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to=20
5 ft seas are evident south of 07N.=20

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and=20
west of 122W through mid week. Additional NW swell in excess of=20
8 ft has begun to enter the waters north of 25N west of 120W=20
today, and will reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft
seas over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to=20
05N140W by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale=20
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to bring mixed=20
swell in excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N from into=20
Wed.

$$
Stripling


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