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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220105035035.193FA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 03:50:35 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 050350
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 06N90W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 09N115W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 119W and 
121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Near gale force winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft off Chiapas and eastern Oaxaca due to
residual swell from the extended period of strong gales that
ended earlier today. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
persist elsewhere south of 20N. Farther north, large NW swell is
moving into the waters off Baja California Norte, as reported by
a couple of vessels near Guadalupe Island. Another recent ship 
observation in the central to southern part of the Gulf of 
California reported winds to 20 kt, confirming moderate to fresh 
winds are still active in that area. This is due to a still 
fairly tight pressure gradient in the area related to high 
pressure north and west of the region and low pressure along the 
Sierra Madres. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north
of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, the near gale-force gap winds across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish tonight through Wed 
morning. Large Northerly swell from this event is spreading well 
beyond the outer offshore waters, but will subside quickly late 
tonight through Wed. Farther north, high pressure north and west 
of the region will support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf 
of California through Thu. Large NW swell moving into the outer 
offshore waters of Baja California will reach as far south as off
Cabo San Lazaro Wed, and to Socorro Island Thu. Looking ahead, 
fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds north of the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the area is supporting strong 
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downwind to near
90W. Seas are building accordingly to near 8 ft downstream of 
the Gulf of Papagayo and southern Nicaragua. Moderate N to NE winds
prevail over the northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to 
moderate winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters
south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 range across 
the Gulf of Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast 
waters.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Papagayo into Wed, then return again starting Fri. Light to 
gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon 
trough. The strong gale-force gap wind event across the 
Tehuantepec region has generated large NW swell across the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters that will subside 
late tonight through Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N130W
to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh trade winds from 08N to 23N west of 120W, with 7 to 9 ft
seas. An altimeter satellite pass from 21 UTC showed 8 to 12 ft
seas north of 25N and west of 138W, which is due to large NW
swell moving into the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to 
E winds are evident north of 10N west of 105W, with gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 105W, with 
4 to 6 ft seas. East of 105W, fresh NE to E gap winds from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and 7 to 11 ft seas in NE swell are evident 
north of 07N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 122W through mid week. Additional NW swell in excess of 
8 ft will reinforce the earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas 
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W 
by mid week. Farther east, swell generated from the gale event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to bring mixed swell in 
excess of 8 ft east of 110W from 06N to 13N into Wed.

$$
Christensen


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