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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 08:57:06 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 050856
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W. The 
ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 09N120W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 103W and 
108W, from 11N to 13N between 120W and 125W, and from 07N to 09N
between 130W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed strong gap winds
have persisted into the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight. Seas may
still be reaching as high as 9 ft well offshore Chiapas and 
eastern Oaxaca due to residual swell from the extended period of 
strong gales that ended yesterday. Gentle to moderate winds and 
3 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere south of 20N. Farther north, an
altimeter satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed large NW swell
continues to move into the waters off Baja California Norte. A
concurrent scatterometer satellite pass showed mostly moderate NW
winds off Baja California, although coastal winds may be
funneling to 20 kt north of Punta Eugenia. The scatterometer 
pass also showed moderate to fresh winds in the central to 
southern part of the Gulf of California. This is due to a still 
fairly tight pressure gradient in the area related to high 
pressure north and west of the region and low pressure along the 
Sierra Madres. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere north
of 20N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds and associated 
seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish 
through today. Farther north, high pressure north and west of the
region will continue to support fresh NW winds over the central 
Gulf of California into Thu. The large NW swell moving into the 
outer offshore waters of Baja California will reach as far south 
as off Cabo San Lazaro today, and to Socorro Island Thu. Looking 
ahead, fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds north of 
the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downwind to near 90W. Seas 
are building accordingly to near 8 ft downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo and southern Nicaragua. Moderate N to NE winds prevail 
over the northern Gulf of Panama, with gentle to moderate winds 
farther south and over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 range across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, and 3-5 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo will diminish late today and this evening, then return 
again starting Fri. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. The strong gale- force gap
wind event across the Tehuantepec region has generated large NW 
swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters that 
will subside today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 32N130W
to offshore of Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh trade winds from 08N to 23N west of 120W, with 7 to 9 ft 
seas. An altimeter satellite pass from 03 UTC showed 10 to 15 ft
seas north of 25N and west of 130W, which is due to large NW 
swell moving into the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are evident north of 10N west of 105W, with gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 105W, with 
4 to 6 ft seas. East of 105W, fresh NE to E gap winds from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and 7 to 9 ft seas in NE swell are evident 
north of 07N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 122W through today. The reinforcing NW swell in excess 
of 8 ft will mix with earlier swell to create 8 to 11 ft seas 
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 05N140W 
by tonight. This well will decay below 8 ft as is propagates
southward through Fri. Farther east, swell in excess of 8 ft generated
from the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually
subside through tonight east of 110W from 06N to 13N. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move into waters near 30N140W late Sat
then stall. Another round of large NW swell in excess of 8 ft will
accompany the front, impacting the waters north of 15N and west 
of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
Christensen


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