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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220105095435.55D6D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 09:54:34 +0000
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240 
WWPS21 NFFN 050900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 050954 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S
177.5E AT 050800UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE 
NORTH WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE.
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IT
MOVING IT SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION .  

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS IS
LOW.
*********************************************************************
***********
NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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