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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220105114352.40C861C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 11:43:52 +0000
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032 
AWIO20 FMEE 051139

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/05 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

At present, the basin pattern is rather ill-defined and has difficulty in establishing itself durably. However, the mainly NE to E flow over the western half of the basin should gradually give way to a slightly stronger monsoon trough this weekend west of 60oE.

No circulation is present for the moment to initiate the beginning of cyclogenesis. However, a large low-pressure circulation should set up along the eastern coast of Madagascar at the end of the week. However, the environmental conditions are not conducive to a sustainable intensification of this low-pressure area over the next 5 days.

According to the forecasts, in the longer term (end of the second or beginning of the third week of January), conditions will be more conducive to the establishment of one or more areas of cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean or even over the central Mozambique Channel.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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