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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220105160346.A7C541C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 16:03:46 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 051603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06.5N78W to 09N84W to 
05.5N96W to 05.5N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N100W to 
10N118W to 07N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N between 104W and 
129W, and from 06.5N to 11N between 131W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Overnight scatterometer satellite data confirmed strong gap 
winds persisting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and continue
this morning in a narrow plume extending offshore to 13.5N. Seas
have subsided to 7-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas persist elsewhere south of 20N. Farther north, high pressure
NW of the area is supporting fresh northerly winds across the 
offshore waters of the N half of Baja California, and across 
central portions of the Gulf of California. Moderate N to NE 
winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters N of 20N. Seas
are 9-14 ft in NW swell across the waters of Baja Norte, and 5 
to 9 ft in building NW swell S of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4-6 ft 
across south and central portions of the Gulf of California.

The fresh to strong gap winds and associated seas across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually diminish through today. 
Farther north, high pressure north and west of the region will 
continue to support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of 
California into Thu. The large NW swell moving into the outer 
offshore waters of Baja California will reach as far south as off
Cabo San Lazaro today, and to Socorro Island Thu. Looking ahead,
fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
Fri night and Sat as high pressure builds north of the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downwind to near 91W. Seas 
are have built accordingly to 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo and southern Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
prevail over the Gulf of Panama, and extend downwind to 05N. Seas
of 5-7 ft prevail across this area. Gentle to moderate winds 
farther south and over the remainder of the waters south of the 
monsoon trough. Outside of these peak wind areas, seas are in 
the 4-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo will diminish late today and this evening, then return 
again starting Fri. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. The strong gale-force gap
wind event across the Tehuantepec region of recent days generated
large NW swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters that will continue to subside today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near
33.5N131.5W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is 
producing fresh trade winds from 07N to 23N west of 120W.
Overnight altimeter data measures wave heights of 7 to 11 ft
across this area as new NW swell propagates into the region. N of
23N gentle to moderate NE to E winds generally prevail with seas
of 10-14 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E 
winds are evident north of 10N west of 105W, with gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 105W, with 
4 to 6 ft seas. East of 105W, fresh NE to E gap winds from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and 7 to 9 ft seas in NE swell are evident 
north of 07N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 122W through today. The reinforcing NW swell in excess 
of 8 ft will mix with earlier swell to create 8 to 12 ft seas 
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 04N140W 
by tonight. This well will decay below 8 ft as is propagates
southward through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will move 
into waters near 30N140W late Sat then stall. Another round of 
large NW swell in excess of 8 ft will accompany the front, 
impacting the waters north of 15N and west of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
Stripling


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