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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Weather Bulletin
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220105200106.557961C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 20:01:06 +0000
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647 
FQPS01 NFFN 051800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 052000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING NIL.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 061800 UTC.

 A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S
178.0E AT 051800UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IT
MOVING IT SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION .  

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS IS
LOW. 
*********************************************************************
**********

LOW PRESSURE L1 [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 170.0E AT
051800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. 

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 10S 160E 08S 165E 07S 172E 09S 178E 11S 180 14S
180. CZ1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 130
NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 04S 160E 03S 163E 05S 168E. CZ2 SLOW MOVING.
POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ2.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ3 06S 174W 10S 175W 13S 176W 15S 177W. CZ3 SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ3. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ3. 


TROUGH T1 25S 164E 20S 166E TO L TO TD03F TO 16S 179E 21S 178W 25S
174W. T1 SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1.

TROUGH T2 16S 165W 19S 160W 21S 155W 23S 150W 25S 147W. T2 SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SOME SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
T2.

TROUGH T3 11S 167W 13S 162W 15S 157W 17S 154W. T3 SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN SOME SHOWERS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF T3.

TROUGH T4 17S 148W 19S 142W 21S 136W 23S 133W 25S 132W. T4 SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF T4.

IN THE AREA NORTH OF 18S AND EAST OF 178EE, EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS.


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