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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2022 21:29:10 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 052129
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06.5N78W to 09.5N83W 
to 07N95W. The ITCZ continues from 07N95W to 09N123W to 08N131W 
to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 13N between 102W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 10.5N between 122W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to diminish this
afternoon, and are assumed to have fallen to around 15 kt.
Associated seas are likely 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 
3 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere south of Cabo Corrientes and 
20N. Farther north, high pressure NW of the area is supporting
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters N 
of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate winds further south to 20N.
Seas are 8-14 ft in NW swell across the waters N of Cabo San
Lazaro, and 5 to 9 ft in building NW swell to the south. Midday
scatterometer satellite wind data showed fresh to locally strong
northerly winds extending from central portions of the Gulf of 
California to La Ventana, where seas are likely 5-7 ft. 

The gap winds and associated seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will continue to diminish this afternoon and become light
and variable late this afternoon through Thu night. Farther 
north, high pressure northwest of the region will continue to 
support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California into 
Thu. The large NW swell moving into the outer offshore waters of 
Baja California will reach as far south as Socorro Island Thu. 
Looking ahead, fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat as high pressure builds north of 
the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo. Midday scatterometer satellite data
showed fresh winds ENE extending offshore to near 91W, from
offshore of Papagayo to offshore of El Salvador. Seas there are 
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Gulf of
Panama, and extend downwind to 05N. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail 
across this area. Gentle to moderate winds farther south and over
the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Outside
of these peak wind areas, seas are in the 3-6 ft across the rest
of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will 
diminish this afternoon into this evening, then return again 
starting Fri. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere 
south of the monsoon trough. The strong gale-force gap wind 
event across the Tehuantepec region of recent days generated 
NW swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
that will continue to subside this afternoon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near
33N131W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh to locally strong trade winds from 08N to 22N west of 
118W. Morning altimeter data measured wave heights of 9 to 13 ft
across this area as new NW swell propagates into the region. N 
of 22N gentle to moderate NE to E winds generally prevail with 
seas of 10-14 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to
E winds are evident north of 10N west of 110W, with gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 110W. Seas
area generally 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell across this area. East 
of 110W, gentle to moderate NE to E gap winds from well offshore
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell 
N of 02N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident 
south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 120W through this evening, before this area of winds
begin to shrink in areal coverage tonight. Moderate trade winds
are then expected across this region through Fri. The NW swell 
producing seas of 9 to 14 ft across this area will propagate SE
and slowly decay through Fri, with 8 to 12 ft seas over much of 
the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 04N140W by tonight. 
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into waters near 30N140W 
late Sat then stall. Another round of large NW swell in excess of
8 ft will accompany the front, impacting the waters north of 15N
and west of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
Stripling


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