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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220106030112.07D691C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2022 03:01:12 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 060300
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 04.5N80W to 08N85W to 
1010 mb low pressure near 07.5N88W to 07N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N105W to 08N110W to 07N115W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N 
between 101W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 128W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass and a recent ship 
observation confirmed fresh to occasionally strong NW winds
persist across the central and southern Gulf of California. This
is due to relatively high pressure centered northwest of the 
area and lower pressure farther east over the Sierra Madre 
Occidental mountains. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off 
Baja California, where large NW swell extends over the offshore 
waters as far south as Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, gap winds 
have completed ended across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas 
remain 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 
to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere, although wind may occasionally 
reach 15 to 20 kt off Cabo Corrientes tonight. 

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
continue to support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of 
California through Thu. Large NW swell moving into the offshore 
waters of Baja California will reach as far south as Socorro 
Island Thu. Fresh gap winds are possible again over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri through Sat as high pressure builds north of the 
area. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf
of Mexico and southern Mexico may deliver gap winds to gale 
force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting strong gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo, as reported by a recent ship
observation. Seas there are likely 5 to 7 ft. A couple of ship
repoted moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
as well, and extend downwind to 05N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across this area. Gentle to moderate winds farther south and over
the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon trough. Outside
of these peak wind areas, seas are in the 3-6 ft across the rest
of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region will diminish overnight, then return again starting Fri 
night. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 


REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure centered near
34N130W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
fresh trade winds from 08N to 22N west of 120W. Recent ship
report and earlier altimeter data measured wave heights of 9 to 
13 ft across this area as new NW swell propagates into the 
region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident 
north of 10N west of 110W, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds 
elsewhere south of 10N west of 110W. Seas area generally 5 to 7 
ft in mixed swell across this area. East of 110W, gentle to 
moderate NE to E gap winds from well offshore of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell N of 02N. Gentle S 
to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 120W overnight, before this area of winds begin to 
shrink in areal coverage through the early morning. Moderate 
trade winds are then expected across this region through Fri. The
NW swell producing seas of 9 to 14 ft across this area will 
propagate SE and slowly decay through Fri, with 8 to 12 ft seas 
over much of the area north of a line from Los Cabos to 04N140W 
overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into waters 
near 30N140W late Sat then stall. Another round of large NW swell
in excess of 8 ft will accompany the front, impacting the waters
north of 15N and west of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
Christensen


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