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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220106090729.143261C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2022 09:07:28 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 060907
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N80W to 08N85W to 
06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 09N110W to 07N115W to 
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N 
to 12N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 127W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A recent altimeter satellite pass showed 8 to 11 ft seas off Baja
California as far south as 20N. This is due to large NW swell
propagating through the region. Recent scatterometer data showed
mainly moderate NW winds off Baja California as well, although a
ship observations suggested winds were funneling to 20 kt along 
the coast. An earlier ship observation also hinted that NW winds 
were reaching 20 kt along the central and southern Gulf of 
California, with 4 to 6 ft seas. This is due to relatively high 
pressure centered northwest of the area and lower pressure 
farther east over the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. Farther 
south, gap winds have completed ended across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, where seas remain 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California 
through today. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the offshore
waters of Baja California will reach as far south as Socorro 
Island by late today, then subside below 8 ft tonight and Fri. 
Farther south, fresh winds are possible over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri through Sat as high pressure builds north of the 
area. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf
of Mexico and southern Mexico may deliver gap winds to gale 
force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo, as reported by an earlier ship 
observation. Seas there are likely 5 to 7 ft. A couple of ship 
reported moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
as well, although a more recent scatterometer observation
indicated these winds had diminished at least for now to around
15 kt. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across this area. Gentle to 
moderate winds farther south and over the remainder of the waters
south of the monsoon trough. Outside of these peak wind areas, 
seas are in the 3-6 ft across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will persist through Fri, then pulse to strong 
starting Fri night. Moderate to fresh N winds are also expected 
across the Gulf of Panama through today. Light to gentle winds 
will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

1028 mb high pressure centered near 34N131W dominates the waters
north of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing
moderate fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N west of 120W, as
observed in recent scatterometer satellite data. Recent 
altimeter data measured wave heights of 9 to 13 ft across this 
area as new NW swell propagates into the region. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident north of 10N west of
110W, with gentle to moderate SE to S winds elsewhere south of 
10N west of 110W. Seas area generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell 
across this area. East of 110W, gentle to moderate NE to E gap 
winds from well offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 5 to 7
ft seas in NE swell N of 02N. Gentle S to SW breezes and 3 to 5 
ft seas are evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 120W this morning, before this area of winds begin to 
shrink in areal coverage through today. Moderate trade winds are
then expected across this region through Fri. The NW swell 
producing seas of 9 to 14 ft across this area south of 15N late
today through Fri will propagate SE and slowly decay through 
Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into waters near 
30N140W late Sat then stall. Fresh to strong SW winds will
accompany the front north of 28N west of 130W late Sat into Sun.
Another round of large NW swell in excess of 8 ft will also 
accompany the front, impacting the waters north of 15N and west 
of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
Christensen


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