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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220106134323.E5D301C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2022 13:43:23 +0000
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204 
AWIO20 FMEE 061341

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/06 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


Currently, the basin pattern is rather ill-defined with mostly a short-lived monsoon trough on the easterly part of the basin and a poorly established monsoon flow on the western part. Over the following days, in an increasingly conducive context at the basin scale (return of an active MJO phase), the westerly flow will increase near 10S on the western part and feed a low pressure area north-west of the Mascarenes. It is also probably induced by the presence of a baroclinic upper trough on the southern part of the Channel.

In this context, a low may form in this area over the next week. However, the environmental conditions  do not appear conducive to a singnificant intensification at short range. Indeed, the increase in the monsoon flow could be insufficient especially south of 10S.

According to the forecasts, at longer range (end of the second or beginning of the third week of January), conditions will be more conducive to the establishment of one or more areas of cyclogenesis over the Indian Ocean or the Mozambique Channel.

For the next 5 days, there is no risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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