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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220106152002.F24041C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2022 15:20:02 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 061519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from A 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 05N80W to 07N90W to 07N105W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N 
to 11N between 125W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1025 mb located near 32N130W dominates the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in
NW swell. Fresh NW winds are noted in the central and southern
Gulf of California. Farther south, gap winds have completed 
ended across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas remain 4 to 6 ft
in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
support fresh NW winds over the central Gulf of California 
through today. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the offshore
waters of Baja California will reach as far south as the
Revillagigedo Islands by late today, then subside below 8 ft 
tonight and Fri. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec 
region is expected on Sun with gale conditions possible on Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail across this area. Gentle to moderate winds farther 
south and over the remainder of the waters south of the monsoon 
trough. Outside of these peak wind areas, seas are in the 3-6 ft 
across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo region beginning tonight. These winds will 
persist through Mon. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are forecast
in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. Light to gentle winds 
will occur elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1025 mb located near 32N130W dominates the
northern forecast waters mainly north of 15N and west of 120W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds from
08N to 20N west of 120W. Seas of 8-10 ft in NW to N swell are
propagating across the waters N of 20N W of 115W, and from 10N to
20N W of 129W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds are 
evident north of 10N west of 110W, with gentle to moderate SE to 
S winds elsewhere south of 10N west of 110W. Seas area generally 
5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across this area. East of 110W, gentle 
to moderate NE to E gap winds from well offshore of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell N of 02N. Gentle S 
to SW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident south of 07N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support a broad
area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 25N and 
west of 120W this morning, before this area of winds begin to 
shrink in areal coverage through today. Moderate trade winds are
then expected across this region through Fri. The NW swell 
producing seas of 8 to 10 ft across the forecast waters will
continue to subside over the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, a 
cold front will move into waters near 30N140W late Sat then 
stall. Fresh to strong SW winds will accompany the front north of
28N west of 130W late Sat into Sun. Another round of large NW 
swell in excess of 8 ft will also accompany the front, impacting 
the waters north of 15N and west of 130W Sun into Mon.

$$
GR


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