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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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709 
WWPS21 NFFN 070900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 070910 UTC.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.80S
172.70E AT 070600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANDS WRAPS ONTO THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IT
MOVING IT SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
 

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW
THEN MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
*********************************************************************
***********
NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.


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