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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220107093407.13B261C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2022 09:34:07 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 070934
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 07 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb
that is located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 10N86W to 
07N96W to 09N110W to 08N127W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the ITCZ 
between 112W-126W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between
121W-124W. Similar activity is south of the ITCZ within 30 nm 
of a line from 05N103W to 07N108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1019 mb located just north of the area near 
31.5N128W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
based on recent scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in
the 6-8 ft range due to a subsiding NW swell. Moderate NW winds 
are noted in the central and southern Gulf of California with 
gentle to moderate winds in the northern part of the Gulf. Light 
to gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days producing 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Meanwhile, large NW swell moving into the 
offshore waters of Baja California and reaching as far south as 
the Revillagigedo Islands will subside below 8 ft today. The 
next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected on 
Sun night, with gale conditions possible Mon through Tue night. 
Strong high pressure over the southwestern United States is 
forecast to bring moderate to fresh winds over the central and 
southern Gulf of California Mon through Tue and the extreme 
southern part of the Gulf on Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong 
east gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along 
with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are across the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will 
support the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf
of Papagyo through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate 
northerly winds after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1019 mb centered just north of the area near 
31.5N128W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north 
of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds from 10N to 16N west of 120W, except at
times fresh to strong trades from about 09N to 12N between 132W-
136W. Seas in the range of 8-10 ft due to a NW to N swell 
continue to propagate across the waters from 09N to 20N between 
113W-123W, and also from 04N to 19N W of 123W. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support a 
broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N
west of 120W over the next couple of days. The above mentioned 
NW swell will continue to subside over the next 30 hours. A cold
front just northwest of the area crossing 140W at 31N tonight 
will stall this morning, then gradually weaken through Fri. A 
stronger cold front will move across the NW corner of the 
forecast area on Sat night into Sun as progged by the global 
models. A new set of long-period NW swell, possibly producing 
seas of about 8-11 ft, will follow the front that is forecast to
extend from near 30N135W to 25N140W by early Sun morning. Fresh 
to strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front. 

$$
Aguirre


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