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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220107152128.758741C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2022 15:21:28 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 071521
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb=20
that is located over Colombia near 08N76W to 10N86W to 08N95W to
10N115W to a 1010 mb low pressure situated near 09N124W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 114W
and 124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1019 mb located just north of the area near=20
30.5N130W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja=20
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds=20
based on recent scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in
the 5-7 ft range due to a subsiding NW swell. Moderate NW winds=20
are noted in the central and southern Gulf of California with=20
gentle to moderate winds in the northern part of the Gulf. Light=20
to gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the region will
remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days producing=20
gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters of=20
Baja California. Seas associated with the latest NW swell event
have subsided below 8 ft. The next gap wind event across the=20
Tehuantepec region is expected on Sun night, with gale conditions
possible Mon through Tue night. Strong high pressure over the=20
southwestern United States is forecast to bring moderate to fresh
winds over the central and southern Gulf of California Sun night=20
through Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are=20
across the rest of the forecast waters.

An advisory was issued by NESDIS at 07/1100 UTC on the Wolf,=20
Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands. The plume is moving NE
at FL150 and is beginning to dissipate. Some volcanic ash at=20
FL080 is moving westward reaching 45 nm from the summit. For more
information please check the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!=
DZ3fjg!okDHcrcmufUIaUgvGpg9koBbVDwiB-MlLwI-I4E3k7STUfb5wEVOyDq5SHlVYWlKKrWy=
2nW4$=20

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate northerly winds=20
after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north=20
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1019 mb centered just north of the area near=20
31.5N128W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north=20
of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to=20
locally fresh trade winds from 10N to 16N west of 120W, except at
times fresh to strong trades from about 09N to 12N between 132W-
136W. Seas in the range of 8-10 ft due to a NW to N swell=20
continue to propagate across the waters from 09N to 20N between=20
113W-123W, and also from 04N to 19N W of 123W.=20

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support a=20
broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N
west of 120W over the next couple of days. The above mentioned=20
NW swell will continue to subside over the next 24 hours. A cold
front just northwest of the area crossing 140W at 31N tonight=20
will stall this morning, then gradually weaken through Fri. A=20
stronger cold front will move across the NW corner of the=20
forecast area on Sat night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW
swell, possibly producing seas of about 8-11 ft, will follow the
front that is forecast to extend from near 30N135W to 25N140W by
early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast on=20
either side of the front.=20

$$
GR


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