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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220107211355.02C8F1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2022 21:13:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 072113
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb=20
that is located over Colombia near 07N76W to 07N90W to 05N105W=20
to a 1010 mb low pressure situated near 10N118W to 08N125W. The=20
ITCZ continues from 08N125W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between=20
112W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1019 mb located just north of the area near=20
30.5N125W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja=20
California producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds based=20
on recent scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in the=20
4-6 ft range due to a subsiding NW swell. Light and variable
winds are noted over most of the Gulf of California. Light to=20
gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft are seen elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through at least Sun producing
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft
range. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is=20
expected on Sun night, with gale conditions possible Mon through=20
Wed night. Seas are forecast to peak up to 15-16 ft with this=20
gap wind event on Tue. Strong high pressure over the southwestern
United States is forecast to bring moderate to fresh winds over=20
the central and southern Gulf of California Sun night through Tue
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are=20
across the rest of the forecast waters.

An advisory was issued by NESDIS at 07/1711 UTC on the Wolf, Volcano
located in the Galapagos Islands. Some volcanic ash is detected=20=20
moving westward, and reaching approximately 95 nm from the=20
summit. For more information please check the website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!=
DZ3fjg!v7iilT84D0J7R6Q8o2OsVvDA9JxeKkTMr20Z9tItobbjCe-GZ2AKfRe6iYWFKcaTmpI-=
itDi$=20

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate northerly winds=20
after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north=20
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1019 mb centered just north of the area near=20
30.5N125W dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly north=20
of 15N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate=20
trade winds from 10N to 16N west of 120W. Seas, associated with=20
NW swell, continue to subside roughly across the waters from=20
05N-20N W of 115W.=20

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over=20
the next couple of days. The above mentioned NW swell will=20
continue to subside over the next 12-24 hours. The next cold=20
front will move across the NW corner of the forecast area Sat=20
night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW swell will follow the
front building seas up to 12 ft near 30N140W on Sun. Fresh to=20
strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front
forecast to reach from 30N138W to 27N140W on Sat, and from 30N133W
to 24N139W on Sun.=20

$$
GR


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