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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220108002820.CBFB11C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 00:28:20 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 174.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 172.7E, APPROXIMATELY
272 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 071843Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 072023Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. IN ADDITION,
FORMATIVE BANDING IS APPARENT AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL DEEPEN AS IT LOITERS NEAR ITS
CURRENT LOCATION BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM. ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AS LOW.//
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