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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220108034747.0193D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 03:47:46 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 080347
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jan 08 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb=20
that is located over Colombia near 09N74W to 07N80W to 09N87W=20
to 07N100W to 09N110W to low pres near 10N118W 1010 mb and=20
to low pres near 09N125W 1010 mb, where latest scatterometer=20
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N132W and=20
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong=20
convection is seen within 60 nm south of the trough between=20
113W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ between 128W-130W and also within 30 nm north of=20
the trough between 113W-115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 30N129W. This feature
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California=20
producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds based on recent=20
scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft=20
range due to a subsiding NW swell. Light and variable winds are=20
noted over most of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds=20
with seas of 3-5 ft are seen elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through at least Sun producing
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft
range. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is=20
expected on Sun night, with gale conditions possible Mon through=20
Wed night. Seas are forecast to peak up to 15-16 ft with this=20
gap wind event on Tue. Strong high pressure over the southwestern
United States is forecast to bring moderate to fresh winds over=20
the central and southern Gulf of California Sun night through Tue
night. Fresh to strong north winds are expected near Cabo=20
Corrientes Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The Wolf Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands at 00N 91.3W is=20
currently undergoing light volcanic ash emissions. A large
plume of light volcanic ash is spreading westward from the
volcano to over the waters near 93W and from 01S to 01N. Mariners
traveling over these waters are urged to exercise caution. For
more information please check the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http=
://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!DZ3fjg!s27G1NjwiLzbMLuhrbnVi0PRR=
MLqTpFmXpyFqWHSbeb-FLL_LSKMGjPvyD2pABEVP8z9jV_U$=20

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft=20
continue across the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will diminish to mainly moderate northerly winds=20
after tonight. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north=20
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1017 mb located near 30N129W dominates the=20
northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W.=20
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to=20
16N west of 120W. Seas, associated with NW swell, continue to=20
subside roughly across the waters from 05N to 14N between=20
111W-127W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over=20
the next couple of days. The above mentioned NW swell will=20
continue to subside over the next 12-24 hours. The next cold=20
front will move across the NW corner of the forecast area Sat=20
night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW swell will follow the
front building seas up to 12 ft near 30N140W on Sun. Fresh to=20
strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front
forecast to reach from 30N138W to 27N140W on Sat, and from 30N133W
to 24N139W on Sun.=20

$$
Aguirre


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