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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220108060148.9F0031C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 06:01:48 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 080600Z-090600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 172.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 172.8E, APPROXIMATELY
268 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 080144Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTION
CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT APPROACHES WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9S 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 080324Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 90P WILL DEEPEN AS IT
LOITERS NEAR ITS CURRENT LOCATION BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN


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