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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220108091657.4A1C01C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 09:16:57 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 080916
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 08 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb=20
that is located over Colombia near 10N75W to across central=20
Costa Rica and to 10N86W to 07N93W to 07N100W, where latest=20
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to=20
07N108W to 11N115W, where it pauses west of a trough that extends
from 14N115W to 10N119W. It resumes west of the same trough at=20
11N120W to 10N125W, where it pauses again west of another trough=20
that extends from 13N124W to 05N126W. It then resumes west of the=20
same trough at 10N127W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 09N to 12N between 125W-126W, also within
30 nm south of the ITCZ between 123W-125W and within 30 nm of the=20
ITCZ between 127W-129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 30N126W. This feature=20
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California=20
producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds. Seas over these=20
waters are in the 4-6 ft range due to a subsiding NW swell. Light
and variable winds are noted over most of the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds with seas of 3-5 ft due to a NW swell are=20
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through at least Sun producing
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft
range. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is=20
expected on Sun night when strong north winds are surge southward=20
from southeastern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. NWP=20
models suggest that gale conditions will be possible beginning=20
on Mon and lasting through Wed night. Seas are forecast to peak=20
up to 12-19 ft with this gap-wind event on Tue. Strong high=20
pressure over the southwestern United States is forecast to=20
bring moderate to fresh winds over the central and southern Gulf=20
of California Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to strong north=20
winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The Wolf Volcano located in the Galapagos Islands at 00N 91.3W is=20
currently producing a plume of volcanic ash that is spreading=20
westward to over the waters near 93W and from 01S to 01N.=20
Although the plume is becoming faint, mariners traveling over=20
these waters are urged to exercise caution. For more information=20
please check the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.ssd.noaa.g=
ov/VAAC/messages.html__;!!DZ3fjg!tjxnHWrLCJJhmKqaXTagc0GuT4KKU7Bj2Vz1-f-6tu=
zqL6Ldu3gWbw1jd5rwYQE2FXRQeQRt$=20

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong=20
NE to E gap winds over in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with
seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft=20
continue across the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support=20
the fresh to strong east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo=20
through early next week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will diminish to gentle speeds Mon and Tue, then=20
increase back up to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through=20
Wed night. Light to gentle winds will occur elsewhere north of=20
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere=20
south of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 30N126W dominates the=20
northern forecast waters, mainly north of 15N and west of 120W.=20
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure along
the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to=20
16N west of 120W. Seas, associated with NW swell, continue to=20
subside roughly across the waters from 05N to 14N between 111W-=20
127W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to support
mainly moderate trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W over=20
the next couple of days. The above mentioned NW swell will=20
continue to subside over the next 12-24 hours. The next cold=20
front will move across the NW corner of the forecast area Sat=20
night into Sun. A new set of long-period NW swell will follow the
front building seas up to 12 ft near 30N140W on Sun. Fresh to=20
strong winds are also forecast on either side of the front
forecast to reach from 30N138W to 27N140W on Sat, and from
30N133W to 24N139W on Sun. A trough, mainly forced by upper-
level dynamics, is expected to develop Sun over the central part=20
of the area well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja=20
California along a position from near 17N122W to 13N125W and to=20
11N127W. By late Sun night, the induced gradient between this=20
trough and the high pressure to its north is forecast to lead to=20
fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the waters from 15N=20
to 18N between 118W-122W along with seas of 8 ft. These seas=20
could possibly be somewhat higher if the winds persist for a=20
long-duration period.

$$
Aguirre


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