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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220108114942.EA56E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 11:49:42 +0000
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686 
AWIO20 FMEE 081147

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/08 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


Currently, the basin pattern remains rather ill-defined with a temporary branch of Monsoon trough towards 05oS east of 70oE (which should be more like a branch of Near Equatorial trough within 24-48h with the arrival of an equatorial Rossby wave) and a trans-equatorial monsoon flow present west of 60oE but which does not generate effective convergence due to the lack of trade winds.

Over early next week, a mow could form off the northeast coast of Madagascar. The environmental conditions do not seem conducive to the development of a tropical storm (low levels convergence deficient despite the resumption of the trade winds from Monday south of the low). However, the ensemble data of the American and European forecasts, do not allow to exclude the risk of development of a tropical storm during next week while this system should evolve on a general southward track between Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands.

On the eastern side of this low-pressure circulation, a potentially significant and long-lasting rainstorm degradation is possible over the Reunion-Mauritius sector from Monday.

For the next 5 days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm becomes very low from Tuesday between Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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