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[148.163.139.28]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id x8si1317992ybk.831.2022.01.08.06.13.23 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Sat, 08 Jan 2022 06:13:24 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Received: from pps.filterd (m0166260.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 208E1lvh025673 for ; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 14:13:23 GMT Received: from lists.illinois.edu (lists.illinois.edu [192.17.172.63]) by mx0b-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTP id 3df2k8ubft-7 for ; Sat, 08 Jan 2022 14:13:23 +0000 Received: by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix, from userid 50033) id 69FC8E2927; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 08:13:23 -0600 (CST) Delivered-To: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu Received: from mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com [148.163.135.28]) by lists.illinois.edu (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 3F6C4E0CB8 for ; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 08:13:15 -0600 (CST) Received: from pps.filterd (m0166257.ppops.net [127.0.0.1]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (8.16.1.2/8.16.1.2) with ESMTP id 208DgqWS022297 for ; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 14:13:14 GMT Received: from fortimail.cod.edu (fortimail.cod.edu [192.203.136.203]) by mx0a-00007101.pphosted.com (PPS) with ESMTPS id 3df3cjtjw6-1 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=NOT) for ; Sat, 08 Jan 2022 14:13:14 +0000 Received: from mail.cod.edu ([10.11.1.123]) by fortimail.cod.edu with ESMTP id 208EDD5x029823-208EDD61029823 (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 bits=256 verify=OK) for ; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 08:13:13 -0600 Received: from MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) by MAIL19.cdnet-ad.ad.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.2.986.14; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 08:13:13 -0600 Received: from weather.cod.edu (10.11.2.79) by MAIL.cod.edu (10.11.1.123) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 15.2.986.14 via Frontend Transport; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 08:13:13 -0600 Received: by weather.cod.edu (Postfix, from userid 1001) id 0135B1C0EEE; Sat, 8 Jan 2022 14:13:12 +0000 (UTC) From: COD Weather Processor To: Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 99p)// Message-ID: <20220108141313.0135B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu> Date: Sat, 8 Jan 2022 14:13:12 +0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-FE-Policy-ID: 7:6:2:SYSTEM X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=1 adultscore=0 spamscore=1 priorityscore=308 impostorscore=0 phishscore=0 malwarescore=0 mlxlogscore=208 mlxscore=1 suspectscore=0 clxscore=329 bulkscore=0 lowpriorityscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2110150000 definitions=main-2201080113 X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather.cod.edu X-Spam-Bar: * X-Sympa-Topic: Pacific-SW Reply-To: COD Weather Processor X-Loop: wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu X-Sequence: 279159 Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu Precedence: list Precedence: bulk X-no-archive: yes List-Id: List-Help: List-Owner: List-Post: List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1641651196-74861-9832" X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: QlZ8K3aWOroLF5SM2mPUR1tEXPDWWirA X-Proofpoint-GUID: QlZ8K3aWOroLF5SM2mPUR1tEXPDWWirA X-Spam-Details: rule=cautious_plus_nq_notspam policy=cautious_plus_nq score=0 suspectscore=0 clxscore=1015 impostorscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=1 spamscore=0 adultscore=0 lowpriorityscore=1 priorityscore=1501 mlxscore=0 mlxlogscore=496 malwarescore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2110150000 definitions=main-2201080113 X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-OrigSender: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu X-Spam-Bar: This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1641651196-74861-9832 Content-Type: text/plain WTPS21 PGTW 081430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5S 173.2E TO 20.1S 174.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 173.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 080716Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS ORIENTED IN A NORTH-SOUTH ARC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 08948Z ASCAT BULLSEYE FURTHER REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS MIRRORING THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KTS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15- 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091430Z. // NNNN ------------=_1641651196-74861-9832 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = == = = To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL. ------------=_1641651196-74861-9832--